After Trump took office, there was no significant policy-driven effect on the cryptocurrency market. In addition to the family WLFI fund constantly buying coins, there were also some scandals, including possibly conspiring to make markets with the project party; Trumps son called for buying ETH, and the fund suspected of secretly selling ETH. The Trump administrations pressure on the SEC to cut interest rates did not work, and the government agencies such as the established cryptocurrency committee were all thunder and thunder with little rain.
Related reading: Is Trump still good for the cryptocurrency world?
On the contrary, the Trump administrations macroeconomic policy of a strong dollar and weak U.S. stock market has had a huge impact on cryptocurrencies. The 25% tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada and then postponed and cancelled them have made the cryptocurrency market turbulent. What is even more fatal is that when BTC rebounded, altcoins followed the decline but not the rise, and most of the altcoins hit a new low in the past two years.
Many people are wondering: Is the bull market still there? In this cycle, the current situation is that Trumps eponymous meme coin has created a myth of getting rich quickly. Trump came to power and called for eternal bulls. I cant help but think of the myth of getting rich quickly with SHIB and the listing of Coinbase in the last bull market. They collectively called for the end of the eternal bull market. It seems to be the same as looking for a sword on a boat. Is the bull market really still there? Will there be a day for the cottage to be untied? Lets see what traders think.
Technical Analysis
The liquidity of altcoins has not returned at present, and more altcoin liquidity has withdrawn and chosen to enter BTC liquidity.
Of the two possible paths previously recognized, it now appears that the second one has been taken.
Around $92,000 is the green area in my picture. This is the lower boundary of the box in the entire box oscillation. If the price rebounds here, it can be used as an entry point, and stop loss when it falls below. Currently, this is in the middle of the box, and both long and short positions are very uncomfortable, waiting for the right entry opportunity.
BTC has completed the plunder eqh. Short sellers please pay attention to your positions, and long sellers should pay attention to the buying opportunities on the pullback.
Bitcoin is in a volatile market. The market logic is to find liquidity: where are the most people stopping losses + liquidation? Bitcoin closed with two long-legged cross stars on the daily line, and the possibility of rising next week has increased. There is also the possibility of a final decline in the small cycle, falling to around 94,600. If it recovers to 95,600+, then the rally will begin. If it rises next week, the target will be as low as 100,500 and as high as 103,000.
Data analysis
The largest BTC out of the exchange since 2024 has just happened. More than 17,000 BTC left the exchange, of which 15,000 were moved out of CoinBase, and a large number of whales bought bottom chips here.
@Phyrex_Ni
The BTC reserves on exchanges did plummet after the price fell below $100,000, and have almost reached their lowest point in nearly six years, spanning two late periods. This shows that more investors choose to hold on to their coins and wait and see after buying.
Macro Analysis
The non-farm payrolls data was just released. It was basically the same as expected. The unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4%, which is lower than the previous value. This data is not very good, indicating that the current labor market is still very strong. The non-farm payrolls have dropped quite a lot, which is much lower than expected. This data is still good. The wage growth rate is also increasing. In general, the entire labor market has not cooled down significantly, which may not meet the expectations of some Fed officials. But it also shows the strength of the US economy.
The possibility of a rate cut in March is almost non-existent. Of course, there never was one in the first place. The current labor data will further reduce the probability of a rate cut in March. This itself is within the markets expectations. Lets look at the dot plot for March first. To be honest, the current macro data is of limited help to the market.
After all, Powell himself said that the labor market is not a big concern anymore, and we should pay more attention to inflation data, especially housing inflation. In general, todays labor data is good for the economy, but not conducive to the Fed increasing the number of interest rate cuts.
After the data was released, Kashkari of the Federal Reserve gave a speech. The main content was the same as Powells point of view, If we see good inflation data and the labor market remains strong, then this will prompt me to support further interest rate cuts. Interestingly, this view is completely different from Logans speech yesterday, who believes that a strong labor market is a good thing.
The decline in inflation mainly depends on housing inflation. Kashkari said, If inflation goes down, I dont see why interest rates should remain unchanged. He also expects inflation to continue to decline this year and the Feds interest rate cuts to be moderate.
The labor data has basically been characterized, especially the labor data, which is good for the economy and is one step further away from recession.
First of all, after a week, the market value of BTC remained basically unchanged, but the market and #ETH altcoins shrunk. Through the changes in the proportion, it is clear that BTCs share has greatly sucked the blood of the market. The current share has exceeded 58% and is closer to 59%. In contrast, ETHs share has directly fallen below 10%, which is terrible.
Simply speaking in terms of trading volume, except for BTC which still maintains a certain degree of activity, the basic activity of ETH altcoins has continued to decline and the sentiment is poor.
There was a large increase in funds, with an increase of 8.9 billion this week and a total of 231.5 billion US dollars in stablecoins.
USDT: The official website shows that the current market value is 141.355 billion, an increase of 1.951 billion compared to last Sunday. The Asian and European markets have resumed inflows this week and have seen an increase in inflows.
USDC: The data website shows that the funds increased by 2.817 billion, and the funds in the US region also maintained incremental inflows.
After the release of employment data, BTC rebounded along with the U.S. stock market. However, inflation expectations triggered a decline in the risk market. This week may end in a decline. The current price is still in a weak zone!
After the release of employment data tonight, although the data is not positive, the negative trend has been basically cleared due to the downward trend this week. As long as it is not negative, the market will rebound again.
The market also showed the same trend after the data was released. In the short term, the BTC price broke through the 1-hour/4-hour range.
However, the subsequent inflation expectations of the University of Michigan triggered inflation concerns in the risk market, causing the US stock market to fall, and BTC followed suit, which directly interrupted BTCs rebound momentum, resulting in the current BTC price still being in a weak zone.
The unemployment rate has dropped and the non-farm payrolls are lower than expected. The node for resuming interest rate cuts that traders are betting on is currently stuck in June this year, and it does not seem very stable yet. This means that there is no need to wait for interest rate cuts in the first and second quarters, and the earliest will have to wait until the mid-June interest rate meeting.
