Introduction: The new order of the cryptocurrency market in the Trump era
In 2025, the global financial market ushered in new changes. Trump returned to the White House and continued his consistent economic nationalism policy. Policies such as imposing tariffs, reshaping supply chains, and strengthening the hegemony of the US dollar have been introduced one after another. At the same time, with the continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the intensification of the global de-dollarization trend, and the rise of the crypto asset market on a global scale, the Trump administrations attitude towards cryptocurrencies is undergoing significant changes. Against this background, the concept of strategic reserves of crypto assets has gradually surfaced and become the focus of market attention. This report will delve into the impact of the Trump administrations tariff policy on the global financial market, and how the strategic reserve plan for crypto assets that it may promote will affect the market performance of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. In addition, we will also analyze possible changes in regulatory policies, adjustments to the asset allocation strategies of institutional investors, and the future development direction of the overall crypto market.
1. Trump’s economic policies and the macro background of the crypto market
1.1 Tariff Policy: Reshaping the Global Economic Order and Impact on the Capital Market
Trumps economic policy has always been centered on America First. This strategy has not only affected the domestic economic landscape of the United States, but also profoundly changed the operating model of the global capital market and financial system. The Trump administration implemented a series of major economic policies from 2017 to 2021, including large-scale tax cuts, tough trade wars, pressure on the Federal Reserve, and regulation of US dollar liquidity. These policies have promoted the growth of the US economy in the short term, but have also led to long-term rising fiscal deficits and instability in the international economy. In 2025, after Trump was re-elected, the market generally expected that his government would continue or even strengthen past economic policies, especially in terms of tariff policies, US dollar strategies, fiscal stimulus, regulatory environment, and global capital flows, which will have a profound impact on the crypto market.
Against the backdrop of an increasingly decentralized global economic system, the crypto market has gradually become an important part of the international financial system. Mainstream crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are not only seen as investment targets, but are also seen by some countries and institutions as assets to hedge against the risk of the US dollar. The use of stablecoins (such as USDT and USDC) in international trade settlements is also increasing, which has promoted the process of digitalization of the US dollar. The Trump administrations economic policies will have a profound impact on these trends. Its tariff policy may accelerate the allocation of global funds to crypto assets such as Bitcoin. The management of US dollar liquidity will affect the supply of funds in the crypto market. The US regulatory policy will determine the legitimacy and development space of the crypto market, and the strategic reserve plan for crypto assets that Trump may promote is more likely to trigger changes in the global market.
One of the core economic policies of the Trump administration is its highly aggressive trade policy. Between 2018 and 2019, the outbreak of the US-China trade war led to the restructuring of the global supply chain and major changes in capital flows. Faced with the new economic situation in 2025, Trump is likely to restart the trade war and impose tariffs on economies such as China, the European Union, and Japan, trying to re-establish the competitiveness of the US manufacturing industry through external pressure. The direct consequence of this policy will be the rise of uncertainty in the international capital market, and global investors will seek safe-haven assets. Decentralized assets such as Bitcoin may become a new safe-haven tool in this environment. In fact, during the most intense period of the trade war in 2019, the price of Bitcoin soared from $3,000 to $13,000. The market generally believed that capital would flow part of its funds into the crypto market while avoiding risks in traditional markets. The escalation of the trade war in 2025 may once again drive a similar trend in capital flows, especially in the context of the damaged credit system of the US dollar, the appeal of Bitcoin may be even stronger.
In addition to the impact of the trade war on the global capital market, the fiscal policy of the Trump administration is also an important factor affecting the crypto market. Trump implemented a large-scale tax cut policy in 2017, which reduced corporate tax rates and increased the government fiscal deficit. In 2025, Trump may take similar measures to stimulate US economic growth, including further corporate tax cuts, large-scale infrastructure investment, and increased military spending. These policies may boost the US economy in the short term, but they will also increase the fiscal deficit and put pressure on the US dollar credit system. An increase in the fiscal deficit usually means that the government needs to fill the funding gap through bond issuance or monetary easing policies, and if the market expects the Federal Reserve to resume quantitative easing (QE) in the future, then market liquidity will increase, which is often a positive for Bitcoin and other crypto assets. In fact, during the 2020-2021 period, the ultra-loose monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve was one of the important driving forces of the Bitcoin bull market. Therefore, if the Trump administration promotes a new round of fiscal stimulus and the Federal Reserve is forced to cooperate with the loose monetary policy to a certain extent, the market may usher in a new round of rising cycles for crypto assets.
1.2 Cyclical Correlation between USD Liquidity and Crypto Market
As the global reserve currency, the status of the US dollar may change under the policies of the Trump administration. During his first term, Trump repeatedly expressed his dissatisfaction with the strong dollar, believing that the overvaluation of the dollar has damaged the competitiveness of the US manufacturing industry. In 2025, the Trump administration may take measures to promote the devaluation of the US dollar to boost exports and reduce the trade deficit. If the trend of dollar depreciation is established, global investors may seek other assets to hedge the risk of dollar depreciation, and Bitcoin, gold and other safe-haven assets may become new directions for capital inflows. In particular, some countries around the world have begun to explore the process of de-dollarization. For example, Russia and China have reduced their dependence on the US dollar in international trade, and Middle Eastern countries are also trying to use the RMB or other currencies for oil settlement. If the Trump administrations policies accelerate the process of de-dollarization, the global capital demand for decentralized assets such as Bitcoin may rise further, pushing the crypto market into a new stage of development.
Crypto regulatory policies in the United States may see major changes in the Trump era. Trumps attitude towards crypto assets was vague during his first term, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has repeatedly expressed his desire to strengthen regulation of the crypto market to prevent assets such as Bitcoin from being used for illegal transactions. However, during the 2024 campaign, Trump and his allies began to show a more positive attitude towards crypto assets, believing that Bitcoin and blockchain technology can bring new financial innovation and economic growth opportunities to the United States. In 2025, the Trump administration may adjust the US crypto regulatory framework, such as reducing the tax burden on crypto assets, relaxing legal restrictions on crypto trading and investment, and supporting the further development of financial products such as Bitcoin ETFs. If these policies are implemented, it will bring huge growth opportunities to the US crypto market, and it will also have a demonstration effect on the global market, prompting other countries to adjust their attitudes towards the crypto market.
It is worth noting that the Trump administration may promote the establishment of a Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve Program to include crypto assets such as Bitcoin in the national reserve system. This policy may be based on multiple factors, including combating the credit risk of the US dollar, seizing the dominant position in the global crypto market, and ensuring the United States leading edge in the field of digital assets in international competition. If the US government decides to hold Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, Bitcoin will usher in unprecedented market recognition and may become an important part of the global financial system. The impact of this policy will far exceed the entry of any ETF or institutional investment. It means the formal recognition of Bitcoin at the sovereign state level and may trigger follow-up from other countries around the world.
1.3 Institutional investors’ reconfiguration of the crypto market
In the past few years, institutional investors have gradually become more receptive to crypto assets. With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the entry of large financial institutions, crypto assets have gradually become part of traditional investment portfolios. If the Trump administration promotes the strategic reserve of crypto assets and relaxes restrictions on institutional investors holding crypto assets, the market structure will change significantly. In the long run, this may allow mainstream assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum to enter more national and institutional investment portfolios, driving the market to further mature.
Overall, the Trump administrations economic policies will have a profound impact on the crypto market. The trade war may accelerate capital flows to crypto assets, fiscal deficits and the depreciation of the US dollar may push up demand for Bitcoin, and adjustments to the regulatory environment may further promote the development of the US crypto market. If the Trump administration eventually promotes the strategic reserve plan for crypto assets, Bitcoin may usher in historic institutional recognition and completely change the landscape of the global financial system. In this process, the market needs to pay close attention to the specific policy direction of the Trump administration and the response of the global capital market to these policies in order to grasp the future development opportunities of the crypto market.
2. Strategic Reserves of Crypto Assets: Policy Background and Potential Impact
2.1 Policy Background of the US Government’s Promotion of Strategic Reserves of Crypto Assets
After the Trump administration comes to power again in 2025, the core of its economic policy will still revolve around America First, which not only means re-examining the global reserve currency status of the US dollar, but also may mean that the government begins to consider diversifying some national reserves to hedge against US dollar credit risks. For a long time, the US dollar has been the worlds main reserve currency, giving the United States unparalleled influence in the global financial system. However, in recent years, with the rise in US debt levels, the expansion of fiscal deficits, the adjustment of interest rate policies, and the questioning of the dominance of the US dollar by various countries, the reserve status of the US dollar is being challenged.
On the one hand, the fiscal deficit problem of the US government has become the focus of global market attention. Since 2020, the US government debt level has continued to soar. By the end of 2024, the US national debt has exceeded 34 trillion US dollars and is still growing rapidly. This has weakened the markets confidence in the long-term value of the US dollar, prompting countries to begin exploring reserve assets other than the US dollar. After the Trump administration came to power, in order to further promote fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investment, the US fiscal deficit problem may worsen further. If the market expects an increase in the risk of US dollar depreciation, global central banks may accelerate the adjustment of their reserve asset allocation, and decentralized assets such as Bitcoin may become an alternative to the US dollar.
On the other hand, the acceleration of the de-dollarization process also requires the US government to rethink how to maintain its financial hegemony. In recent years, many countries around the world have reduced their reliance on the US dollar in international trade settlements. For example, trade between Russia and China is gradually shifting to local currency settlements, and the UAE, India and other countries are also exploring the use of RMB or other currencies for oil trade settlements. This trend has weakened the global influence of the US dollar, forcing the US government to take new measures to ensure its dominant position in the global financial system. If the Trump administration regards the strategic reserve of crypto assets as a new global financial strategic tool, then Bitcoin may be formally incorporated into the official reserve system of the United States as a potential weapon to hedge against the de-dollarization of the global financial system.
In addition, the Trump administrations attitude towards the cryptocurrency market is gradually changing. Although Trump publicly criticized Bitcoin in 2019, calling it based on air and has no real value, his position changed significantly during the 2024 campaign. On the one hand, Trumps team gradually realized the potential of crypto assets in the future financial system and tried to win the support of the crypto industry; on the other hand, US institutional investors have significantly increased their holdings of Bitcoin in the past few years. For example, institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity have launched Bitcoin spot ETFs and attracted billions of dollars in capital inflows. Against this background, the US government may realize that Bitcoin is no longer a marginalized asset class, but is becoming an important part of the global financial system. If the US government hopes to dominate this market, then establishing a strategic reserve of crypto assets will be a strategic choice in line with its national interests.
2.2 Potential Impact of Crypto Asset Strategic Reserves
First, this policy may greatly change the markets perception of the value of Bitcoin and push Bitcoin prices into a completely new valuation system. The current markets main pricing logic for Bitcoin is still based on its scarcity (total supply of 21 million coins), inflation hedging properties, and its role in the digital economy. However, if the US government officially includes Bitcoin in the national reserve, it means that Bitcoin will change from an alternative asset to a national reserve asset, and its market perception will change fundamentally. In the past few decades, gold has been an important part of the global central banks reserves, and if Bitcoin is included in the same system, its market valuation may grow exponentially. The current global gold market size is about $13 trillion, while the total market value of Bitcoin is only about $1 trillion. If Bitcoin is given a reserve function similar to gold, its market value may reach at least 30-50% of the gold market, that is, more than $4-6 trillion, and the corresponding Bitcoin price may be more than $200,000. This means that the US governments policy decisions will directly affect the long-term value of Bitcoin and may trigger a new round of bull market.
Secondly, the implementation of this policy will have a subtle impact on the dollars status as a global reserve currency. Traditionally, the dollars ability to become the worlds main reserve currency relies mainly on the strength of the U.S. economy, the global coverage of U.S. dollar liquidity, and the stability of dollar-denominated assets (such as U.S. Treasuries). However, if the U.S. government begins to include Bitcoin in its reserves, this may send a signal to the market that the U.S. government itself is also considering the credit risk of the U.S. dollar and trying to hedge it through Bitcoin. This may exacerbate market concerns about the long-term stability of the U.S. dollar and prompt other countries to begin adjusting their reserve structures and push more central banks to hold Bitcoin. Once this trend is formed, it may weaken the global dominance of the U.S. dollar and accelerate the multipolarization of the global financial system.
At the same time, the US governments holding of Bitcoin may also have an impact on the global geopolitical landscape. At present, some countries are already trying to incorporate Bitcoin into their national financial strategies. For example, El Salvador became the first country in the world to use Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021 and gradually increased its national Bitcoin reserves. In addition, Russia, Iran and other countries are also exploring the use of Bitcoin for international trade settlements to circumvent Western financial sanctions. If the US government takes the lead in incorporating Bitcoin into the national reserve system, other countries may have to make corresponding adjustments to avoid being in a passive position in the future competition of the global financial system. This may lead to a national-level Bitcoin reserve competition around the world, which will in turn affect the global financial landscape.
Finally, this policy may also have a knock-on effect on the domestic crypto market regulatory environment in the United States. Currently, the regulation of the crypto market in the United States is still relatively uncertain, and the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) have differences on the issue of who should be responsible for the regulation of crypto assets. However, if the U.S. government decides to include Bitcoin in the national reserve, it means that the legal status of Bitcoin may be formally established and promote the further clarification of the relevant regulatory framework. This may bring a clearer compliance path to the U.S. crypto market, promote more institutional funds to enter the market, and further accelerate the mainstreaming of Bitcoin.
In summary, the US governments implementation of the Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve is not only a major impact on the global financial system, but may also completely change the market positioning of Bitcoin and affect the direction of global capital flows. The implementation of this policy may cause huge market fluctuations in the short term, but in the long run, it may become a milestone in the history of Bitcoin development and push the global financial system into a new era.
3. Future market outlook and investment strategy
3.1 Long-term trends and future prospects of the crypto market
The development path of the crypto market can be analyzed from multiple perspectives, including macroeconomic trends, policy environment, changes in market structure, and technological progress. The Trump administration’s policies may become a catalyst for a new round of bull market, but their long-term impact will depend on multiple variables, including the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the evolution of the global de-dollarization process, the degree of participation of institutional investors, and the policy orientation of emerging markets.
First, changes in the global financial environment will be a key factor affecting the long-term trend of the crypto market. The current global economy faces a series of challenges such as deglobalization, inflationary pressure, interest rate uncertainty, and geopolitical conflicts, all of which may prompt more investors to view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. Historical experience shows that in times of rising global uncertainty, traditional safe-haven assets such as gold tend to be favored by the market, and Bitcoin is gradually acquiring similar safe-haven functions. If the U.S. government officially recognizes Bitcoins status as a reserve asset, then Bitcoin will further gain market trust and may replace part of golds market share.
Secondly, the degree of participation of institutional investors will become an important variable in determining the future market size of Bitcoin. In recent years, with the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, traditional financial institutions have begun to enter the crypto market on a large scale. For example, Bitcoin ETF products of giants such as BlackRock and Fidelity have attracted billions of dollars in capital inflows, and if the US government establishes a strategic reserve of crypto assets, more sovereign funds, pension funds and central banks may accelerate the pace of Bitcoin allocation. This will further promote the market maturity of Bitcoin, gradually transforming it from a highly volatile asset to a stable value storage tool.
In addition, the acceleration of the global de-dollarization process will also have a profound impact on the crypto market. At present, economies including China, Russia, Iran, India and other countries are actively exploring the path of de-dollarization and seeking to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. If Bitcoin becomes part of the US governments reserve assets, other countries around the world may have to reassess their attitude towards Bitcoin. Some countries may follow suit and increase the proportion of Bitcoin in foreign exchange reserves, while others may choose to restrict Bitcoin transactions to maintain the stability of their own currencies. This policy game will directly affect the global liquidity of Bitcoin and may create arbitrage opportunities in certain markets.
3.2 Investment strategy and market opportunity analysis
Against the backdrop of profound changes in market structure, investors need to adjust their strategies to adapt to the new market environment. Both individual and institutional investors need to consider how to optimize asset allocation in the new financial landscape and look for investment opportunities with the greatest potential.
First, the investment logic of Bitcoin will change. In the past, Bitcoin was mainly seen as a high-risk, high-return speculative asset, but in the future, it may be seen more as a digital gold or central bank reserve asset. This means that Bitcoins price volatility may gradually decrease, and investors who hold Bitcoin for a long time will enjoy a steady increase in value. For investors, adopting a long-term holding (HODL) strategy may be the best way to cope with market changes, especially with the support of government policies, the long-term value of Bitcoin will be more guaranteed.
Secondly, structural arbitrage opportunities in the market may increase. As governments’ policies on Bitcoin diverge, different regulatory environments may emerge in the market, which will lead to price differences between different markets. For example, if some countries strictly restrict Bitcoin transactions, while the US government actively promotes the Bitcoin reserve plan, the Bitcoin price in the global market may deviate greatly, and smart investors can use these differences to conduct cross-market arbitrage transactions.
In addition, the role of the derivatives market will be further enhanced. At present, the derivatives market such as Bitcoin futures and options is relatively mature. With the entry of institutional investors, the market demand for risk management of Bitcoin will be further enhanced. In the future, we may see more complex financial instruments introduced into the crypto market, such as Bitcoin-based bonds and structured products. For professional investors, using these tools for risk hedging and profit optimization will be an important trend in the future market.
On the other hand, in addition to Bitcoin, market opportunities for other crypto assets are also worth paying attention to. Although Bitcoin may become a major national reserve asset, the ecosystem of smart contract platforms such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) is still developing rapidly. If government and institutional funds begin to enter the crypto market on a large scale, these assets may also benefit. Especially in the fields of decentralized finance (DeFi) and tokenized assets (RWA), new market opportunities may emerge in the future. For example, some countries may explore blockchain-based treasury bond issuance, or use smart contract technology to optimize financial transaction processes. These trends may create new investment opportunities for investors.
3.3 Risk factors and response strategies
Although the Trump administration’s policies may bring long-term benefits to the crypto market, investors still need to pay attention to potential risk factors and develop corresponding response strategies.
First, policy uncertainty remains one of the biggest risks in the market. Although the Trump administration may support the strategic reserve of crypto assets, the implementation of this policy still depends on many factors, including the approval of Congress, the attitude of the Federal Reserve, the cooperation of the Treasury Department, and the response of other countries around the world. If the policy is hindered, the market may experience greater volatility. Therefore, investors need to pay close attention to policy dynamics and adjust their investment strategies according to policy changes.
Secondly, market liquidity risk is also an important consideration. Although the Bitcoin market has become much more mature than in the past, its liquidity is still relatively low compared to traditional financial markets. If the government or large institutions suddenly adjust their Bitcoin holdings, the market may experience drastic fluctuations. Therefore, investors should avoid excessive leverage trading and adopt a strategy of buying or selling in batches when the market fluctuates greatly to reduce the risk of market shocks.
In addition, geopolitical factors may also have an impact on the crypto market. As competition between countries around the world intensifies, some countries may take measures to curb the use of Bitcoin. For example, China has strengthened its regulation of cryptocurrencies several times in the past few years, and if the US government promotes the Bitcoin strategic reserve plan, other countries may take corresponding countermeasures. Investors need to consider this possibility and ensure that their portfolios are diversified to reduce the risks brought about by specific policy changes.
Finally, technical risks remain a major challenge for the crypto market. Although the Bitcoin network itself is highly secure, the entire crypto industry still faces risks such as smart contract vulnerabilities, exchange security issues, and hacker attacks. Investors need to choose trading platforms with higher security and take appropriate security measures, such as using cold wallets to store assets and diversifying investments in different asset classes, to reduce potential technical risks.
IV. Conclusion
Against the backdrop of major changes in the global financial system, whether the US government will formally include crypto assets such as Bitcoin in the national strategic reserve has become the focus of market attention. With the Trump administrations change in attitude towards crypto assets and the acceleration of the global de-dollarization process, the possibility of establishing a strategic reserve of crypto assets is gradually increasing. If this policy is implemented, it will be one of the most disruptive changes in the global financial system in a hundred years, and may have a profound impact on the reserve status of the US dollar, financial games between countries, market liquidity, sovereign currency competition, and the value perception of Bitcoin. Therefore, we need to explore in depth the Trump administrations potential motivations for promoting this policy, the policy background, the global macro environment, and the possible broad impact on the market.
As the Trump administration promotes the concept of strategic reserve of crypto assets, the global financial market is undergoing a profound structural change. Bitcoin and other crypto assets are transforming from speculative investment products to possible national reserve assets, and are gradually establishing their core position in the global financial system. This trend will not only affect the crypto market itself, but will also have a profound impact on the global reserve currency status of the US dollar, traditional financial markets, sovereign monetary systems, and institutional and individual investment strategies. The crypto market is at a critical stage where policy dividends and market challenges coexist. If the US government officially includes crypto assets in the strategic reserve, core assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum will usher in unprecedented development opportunities.
We suggest that investors need to pay close attention to policy changes and look for the best investment opportunities in market fluctuations. The Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve proposed by the Trump administration may become a key node in the transformation of the global financial system and push the Bitcoin market into a new stage of development. For investors, this policy may bring unprecedented market opportunities, but it is also accompanied by greater uncertainty. In the future market environment, long-term holding of Bitcoin, paying attention to policy dynamics, taking advantage of market arbitrage opportunities, optimizing investment portfolio structure, and managing market risks will be the key to successful investment. With the evolution of the global financial system, crypto assets will become an increasingly important asset class, and investors who can accurately grasp the trend will gain the greatest benefits in this transformation.
