Original author: YBB Capital Researcher Ac-Core
1. The trade war continues to escalate, with a 24-hour cross-market flash crash relay race
Image source: forbes
1.1 Global financial market collapse!
Early in the morning of April 7, the global financial market was in a panic over the escalation of trade frictions over reciprocal tariffs, with stocks, crude oil, precious metals and even cryptocurrencies collapsing across the board. In the early Asian session, the three major U.S. stock index futures continued their decline last week, with Nasdaq 100 futures plummeting 5%, and SP 500 and Dow futures both falling more than 4%. The European market was also overcast, with German DAX futures falling nearly 5%, and European STOXX 50 and UK FTSE index futures both falling above the 4% mark.
Asian markets were in a stampede as soon as they opened: South Koreas KOSPI 200 futures plunged 5% in early trading, triggering a circuit breaker mechanism to suspend trading; the Australian stock index fell from 2.75% to 6% within two hours of opening; Singapores Straits Times Index plunged 7.29% in a single day, setting a record. The Middle East market staged a Black Sunday in advance, with Saudi Arabias Tadawul Index plummeting 6.1% in a single day, and stock indices in oil-producing countries such as Qatar and Kuwait falling by more than 5.5%.
The commodity market was in mourning: WTI crude oil fell below the psychological barrier of $60, hitting a two-year low, with a daily decline of 4%; gold unexpectedly lost the support level of $3,010, and silvers weekly decline widened to 13%; in the cryptocurrency field, Bitcoin fell below the key support level, and Ethereum plummeted 10% on the day, and the myth of digital assets as a safe haven was completely shattered.
1.2 Impact on the Crypto Market
Short-term market shock
The Trump administration’s recent policies have had a significant volatility effect on the crypto market. In January, when Trump signed an executive order to establish a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and study national cryptocurrency reserves, the market responded positively, pushing the total market value of cryptocurrencies to $3.65 trillion at the end of the month, a cumulative increase of 9.14%. However, the introduction of the tariff increase policy in February quickly reversed the previous market trend. In particular, after the announcement of long-term import tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico on February 3, the crypto market saw a significant decline in linkage with the stock market: Bitcoin fell by 8% in 24 hours, and Ethereum plummeted by more than 10%, triggering a $900 million liquidation across the network and forced liquidation of 310,000 investors.
From the perspective of transmission mechanism, tariff policies affect the crypto market through multiple paths: first, trade frictions exacerbate global market volatility, pushing the U.S. dollar to strengthen as a safe-haven asset and prompting funds to flow back to the U.S. market; second, institutional investors may liquidate crypto assets to make up for losses in other portfolios in order to manage risks; inflationary pressure caused by tariffs may weaken consumption capacity, thereby reducing market risk appetite, especially in the high-volatility crypto market.
Long-term potential opportunities
Despite the significant short-term impact, tariff policies may create structural opportunities for the crypto market in the following ways:
Liquidity expansion expectations The Trump administration may implement expansionary fiscal policies through tax cuts and infrastructure investment. Debt monetization measures to make up for the fiscal deficit or take will increase market liquidity. Historical experience shows that during the period when the Federal Reserves balance sheet expanded by $3 trillion in 2020, the price of Bitcoin rose by more than 300% during the same period, indicating that a new round of liquidity injection may provide support for crypto assets.
Strengthening anti-inflation properties
Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp, pointed out that if the trade war leads to a depreciation of the US dollar, Bitcoin may become a hedging tool due to its fixed total volume characteristics. The competitive currency depreciation that may be triggered by tariff policies may prompt more investors to use cryptocurrencies as an alternative channel for cross-border capital flows.
2. “Businessman + Dictatorship = Market Manipulation”
Image source: marketwatch
2.1 Starting from the tariff war on trade deficit
In Trumps business mindset, the so-called trade deficit is not a complex economic concept, but more like an unequal price relationship between the purchaser and the supplier in a procurement negotiation. You can refer to the explanation of economist Fu Peng: Now the purchaser calls all potential suppliers to the conference table and says we need to renegotiate the terms of cooperation. Does this sound a bit like centralized bidding in the pharmaceutical industry? Yes, Trumps operation is actually a typical bidding tactic.
If tariffs are considered a kind of bid restriction, then the high tariffs set by Trump are actually equivalent to a psychological price set in advance by the purchaser in the bidding process - anyone who wants to win the bid must compete below this price. This setting may sound crude and even a bit snap-up, but it is very common in many actual procurement negotiations, especially in large-scale centralized procurement projects led by the government.
Some people questioned whether Trump made this decision on the spur of the moment using an Excel spreadsheet, but that was not the case. His strategy is not complicated. In essence, it is to force suppliers to come to the negotiation table by artificially setting a threshold price. The most direct effect of this move is that whoever does not come to negotiate is automatically eliminated, because if you do not accept this upper limit offer, you can only be taxed according to the worst conditions, which is basically equivalent to automatically giving up market access qualifications.
At this point, countries that want to participate in this bid can only sit down and negotiate with the United States - how to reduce tariffs, how to allocate product quotas, and how to change rules. It looks like a trade confrontation, but in fact it is more like a business negotiation driven by rounds of bargaining. Because of this, the report of Mohammed Apabai, head of Asian trading strategy at Citibank, made it very clear: Trump is now using a typical set of negotiation tactics.
For those small and medium-sized suppliers, there is actually not much room, because it is difficult for them to bargain with the purchaser alone. So the purchaser (that is, the United States) takes advantage of the concessions of these small suppliers to further put pressure on larger suppliers. This strategy of first breaking the edge and then encircling the center. To put it bluntly, it is to use the concessions of the periphery to force the core players to compromise.
So in a sense, Trumps so-called tariff war is not entirely for the purpose of starting a war, but to create a situation where negotiation is inevitable. Is it to force you to negotiate, or to force you out? This is what he really wants to play.
2.2 “Dictator”
Although the United States has a strong constitutional system and democratic tradition, during Trumps presidency, many of his words and deeds were widely criticized as having dictator-like tendencies. This evaluation is not groundless, but is based on his multiple attacks on institutional norms, democratic mechanisms, public opinion environment and power structure. Although Trump failed to completely break the institutional framework of the United States, his behavior reflects the typical characteristics of a dictator - breaking institutional boundaries, suppressing dissent, and strengthening personal authority.
Undermine institutional checks and balances and centralize power by bypassing Congress
During his administration, Trump frequently used executive orders to advance policies, including building a US-Mexico border wall, issuing a Muslim ban, and cutting environmental regulations. He even declared a state of emergency to mobilize military funds when Congress refused to allocate funds for the border wall, bypassing the constraints of the legislature. This behavior undermined the principle of separation of powers in the US Constitution, allowing the executive power to expand unprecedentedly, and was considered to have a clear tendency towards centralization.
Attacking press freedom and creating an “enemy” public opinion environment
Trump often refers to media that criticize him as fake news and even uses the term enemy of the people to refer to traditional news organizations such as CNN and The New York Times. He repeatedly attacks journalists, TV hosts and commentators on Twitter, inciting supporters to be hostile to the media. In political communication, this method of delegitimizing the media is one of the public opinion control strategies commonly used by authoritarian leaders, with the aim of undermining the publics trust in multiple information sources and establishing an information monopoly.
Interfering with judicial independence and emphasizing loyalty rather than professionalism
Trump has repeatedly attacked the judicial system in public, especially when court rulings contradict his policies, he even directly criticized judges by name. For example, he once called a judge who opposed his immigration policy a Mexican, implying that his ruling was unfair. In addition, he often values loyalty over professional ability in high-level appointments, and frequently replaces key positions such as the Attorney General and the FBI Director, which has seriously impacted judicial independence.
Rejecting election results and undermining the tradition of peaceful transfer of power
After the 2020 presidential election, Trump resolutely refused to admit defeat, accusing the election of being stolen and repeatedly demanding that states recount or repeal the results. More seriously, his remarks ultimately led to the Capitol riots on January 6, 2021, when a large number of supporters stormed Congress in an attempt to prevent the certification of Bidens election. This incident was widely referred to by international public opinion as a dark day for American democracy and was also an obvious attempt to interfere with the peaceful transfer of power, with the essential characteristics of authoritarianism.
Promoting personality cult and forming a leader-only narrative
Trump has promoted a highly personalized ruling style within the party and the government, demanding absolute loyalty. He frequently boasts at rallies, describing himself as the greatest president in history and suggesting that the country would decline without him. This political discourse creates a savior-style personal myth, weakens the presence of collective governance and institutional norms, and easily slides into personality cult and populism.
2.3 Trump’s double-sided chess game: not the president but the “stock god”
When Donald Trump, a billionaire from a real estate empire, was successfully elected as the President of the United States in 2016, many people were surprised that an atypical politician ascended to the throne of the worlds most powerful power. Looking at his governing style and political behavior, and combining the above hypothetical positioning of Trump as a businessman and a dictator, it is my personal opinion that Trump is not a president in the true sense, but more like a super trader who uses power, public opinion and financial markets as tools: a stock god who turns the White House into a Wall Street trading room to earn market volatility. Then from the perspective of a trader, re-understanding Trump who does not play by the rules seems to make all conventional operations reasonable.
The nature of business: seeing the presidency as a “super trading platform”
Trump is a typical businessman-type politician. He has worked in the business world for decades and is good at creating topics, controlling public opinion, and speculating and arbitrage. He does not govern the country according to political logic, but looks at American and global affairs from a business perspective. He governs the country not for the purpose of improving the system or global leadership, but for the pursuit of transactional results, emphasizing America first, which is essentially profit first.
Secondly, Trump also exhibits strong dictator characteristics, especially in the way he guides public opinion and concentrates power. He controls the rhythm of information and is keen to release market-shaking remarks on Twitter, such as We are about to reach a major agreement with China or The Fed should cut interest rates, which often cause sharp fluctuations in financial markets. For an ordinary president, these remarks may be diplomatic gestures; but for a leader who acts with a market operation mindset, these are precise tools for controlling the market.
The Art of Authoritarian Language: Using Information to Intervene Market Sentiment
If one of the core characteristics of a dictator is control and use of information, then Trump is a master of shaking the market through information in modern society. He does not need censorship or closing the media, but becomes the strongest source of information in the market by creating uncertainty and confrontational emotions.
In the Twitter era, he publishes market-influencing remarks almost like a financial anchor every day:
“China is about to sign a huge trade deal”;
“If the Fed doesn’t cut rates, the U.S. will lose competitiveness”;
“Oil prices are too high and it’s OPEC’s fault”;
The border wall will be built, and the market should feel reassured.
These statements themselves do not constitute formal policies, but they frequently cause sharp fluctuations in the Dow Jones Index, SP 500, gold, and crude oil markets. The pace of information release, the emphasis of wording, and even the timing of the release are all full of traces of manipulation.
What is even more striking is that he repeatedly turned sides at different times: today he praised the good progress of the China-US negotiations, but tomorrow he announced the imposition of tariffs; in the morning he said the Fed should cut interest rates, but in the afternoon he said the dollar was too weak. This back-and-forth is not a political swing, but a precise control of market sentiment, making fluctuations a controllable harvesting opportunity.
Family capital network: an arbitrage channel based on power and information
Trumps business network did not stop after he was elected president. Instead, it was given more legitimacy and influence. His family members, such as Kushner and Ivanka, are still widely involved in political and business affairs, and have direct influence in many fields such as Middle East policy, technology investment, and real estate. News about his family trust funds and close friends investment groups using policy foresight to conduct financial arbitrage has been repeatedly disclosed:
Before Trumps massive tax cut policy was introduced, some funds closely related to him invested heavily in U.S. stocks;
Whenever Trump hints at the possibility of releasing strategic oil reserves or launching military action, suspicious transactions always appear in the energy market in advance;
During the trade war with China, the market reacted highly sensitively before and after Trumps remarks about reaching a deal, with several short-term surges.
Although insider trading cannot be directly confirmed, the concentration of information control and policy decision-making power makes the arbitrage channel have strong practical value. The president is no longer a representative of the system, but a trader with unlimited prior information and discourse power.
“Create chaos - guide the direction - reap the results”: a typical method used by market manipulators
Traditional presidents seek stability and continuity, but Trump seems to be constantly creating chaos. He is good at causing market panic and then guiding the market to recover through soothing speeches - the whole process is like a swing operation:
Fire at Iran - market panic - release negotiation signal the next day - market rebound;
Announced additional tariffs on China - tech stocks plummeted - said Chinas attitude is very good a few days later - rebounded;
During the virus period, the epidemic was said to be under control - the stock market rebounded briefly - and then the information reversed and fell again.
Behind these seemingly casual remarks is a high degree of coordination between emotional guidance and market rhythm. He understands the expected response of public sentiment and, like a supermarket trader, dominates the collective psychology of global investors.
Post-Trump era: Personal branding continues to influence the market
Even after leaving office, Trump can still influence the market. He announced that he might run again, causing stocks related to energy, military, social media, and conservative technology to move immediately. For example, the backdoor listing of Truth Social, the stock price once rose sharply without any real profitability. The capital market used Trump itself as a hype target, which is itself a manifestation of his branding and financialization.
3. The crypto market “orchestrated” by the United States, a conspiracy of capital and power
Image source: Al Jazeera
3.1 Reconstruction of Rights: What Trump wants is not Bitcoin, but Bitcoin that has been “domesticated in the American way”
Todays crypto market is no longer an ideal habitat for decentralization, but a new financial colony jointly operated by American capital and power. Since the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, Wall Street giants such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and MicroStrategy have quickly deployed BTC spot positions, locking Bitcoin that originally belonged to the technology community into Wall Streets vault. Financialization and policyization have become the dominant logic, and the price of crypto assets is no longer determined by the spontaneous behavior of the market, but depends on the interest rate hints of the Federal Reserve, the regulatory dynamics of the SEC, and even the verbal promise of supporting crypto by presidential candidates.
The essence of this Americanization is to re-embed decentralized assets into a central system - the American financial hegemony system. ETFs allow the crypto market to rise and fall with the US stock market. Behind the candlestick chart is the pulse of the US bond market fluctuations and CPI data. Bitcoin, once regarded as a symbol of freedom, is now increasingly like an alternative Nasdaq component stock that delays reflecting the Feds intentions.
3.2 The strategic value of Bitcoin: It is not a sovereign reserve asset, but a gray spare tire for the US dollar hegemony
The Trump era has laid the groundwork for Bitcoins national financial positioning. Unlike traditional politicians, he did not directly declare his support, but instead incorporated Bitcoin into the United States strategic financial resource pool by tacitly approving the migration of computing power, relaxing regulatory ambiguity, and supporting mining infrastructure. With the expectation of a weakening of the traditional US dollar credit system, Bitcoin is gradually taking on the role of a non-sovereign reserve asset and being shaped into a safe-haven alternative in financial turmoil.
This layout is very American: undeclared war, silent assimilation. The United States dominates most of Bitcoins financial infrastructure (Coinbase, CME, BlackRock ETF), and further controls the on-chain settlement capabilities through the dollar anchoring of the stablecoin (USDC). When global turmoil, capital risk aversion, and trust transfer occur, the United States has quietly acquired this dollar alternative in the de-dollarization process.
Trump may see further: the belief in Bitcoin has nothing to do with him, but rather domesticating its financial attributes into another monetary sovereignty tool for the United States. In a scenario where the US dollar is restricted, SWIFT is difficult to use, and legal currency is depreciating, Bitcoin has become a backup plan for maintaining power.
3.3 The truth behind the manipulation? Trump is not only the president, but also the “super dealer” in the battlefield of traffic finance
First of all, understand one fact: any financial market is characterized by fluctuations 90% of the time, and only big fluctuations can make big money.
So to sum up all the above points, Trump is a president on the surface, but in fact he is more like a traffic-driven super trader. The purpose of all this is only to create and control market fluctuations in order to make profits from fluctuations.
Trump is a speculator who is good at influencing the market direction through information, traffic and influence, and making money from market fluctuations. On the one hand, he supports Bitcoin to become the US strategic reserve, and on the other hand, he sucks away market liquidity by launching the Meme token $TRUMP. This is a market manipulation strategy of information intervention + liquidity bloodsucking.
Whats even more cruel is that the trend of the crypto market is increasingly dependent on U.S. political games: the Federal Reserves statements, the U.S. SECs dynamics, the presidential candidates speeches, the emotions of congressional hearings... The crypto system, which should have been decentralized, is now deeply embedded in the U.S. dollar policy, the U.S. stock structure, and the logic of U.S. big capital. Today, the crypto market has become an extended battlefield of the American financial system.
We are also witnessing a cruel reality: the market seems free, but it has already been choreographed; prices seem to fluctuate, but behind the scenes it is the people who control the information and traffic who are setting up the game.
