As the global macro environment continues to evolve, the crypto industry is ushering in a new round of structural changes. HTX Ventures, the global investment arm of Huobi HTX, recently released its latest report , Industry Observation: Crypto Waves and Potential Opportunities in Macro Game , which deeply analyzes the core changes and potential opportunities in the crypto market in the current cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin is gradually moving away from its traditional position as digital gold and is moving in line with the trend of risky assets; and the Trump administrations policy support for the crypto industry has also enabled it to leap from a gray area suppressed by regulation to a satellite asset with overflowing US dollar liquidity. The structure of traders has also undergone fundamental changes, from being dominated by retail investors to being dominated by institutions, accelerating the promotion of crypto assets into the mainstream market system.
The core driving force of this cycle is no longer endogenous innovation in the industry, but the legalization and dollarization of the crypto industry. Different from the DeFi wave in 2020 or the ICO boom in 2017, the crypto industry has become a field of technological innovation actively promoted by the US government in this cycle. The concept of Bitcoin strategic reserve further strengthens the potential demand base of the industry and injects new growth momentum into the market.
The trend of dollarization in the crypto industry continues to deepen, which is both an important engine driving the industrys growth and a potential source of risk. Bitcoin once demonstrated its capital hedging function independent of the traditional financial system during the Russo-Ukrainian war, but in recent geopolitical events, Bitcoin prices have fallen in sync with risky assets, reflecting its close relationship with macro liquidity.
The Bitcoin market has been deeply controlled by institutional investors. CME contract holdings rose sharply after the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved, and have remained at more than $10 billion for a long time. Institutions use spot ETFs and futures basis arbitrage to amplify returns with high leverage, making Bitcoin price fluctuations amplified to a three-times leveraged version of the Nasdaq index. This structure means that in periods of abundant liquidity, Bitcoins gains will lead technology stocks; and in periods of tight liquidity, Bitcoins declines will be more severe.
At the policy level, the United States has made substantial progress in promoting the compliance of the crypto industry. The FIT21 Act clarifies the regulatory boundaries of digital assets, brings highly decentralized tokens under CFTC supervision, and establishes a 3-5 year safe harbor mechanism to encourage new projects to transform into compliance. At the same time, the abolition of SAB 121 breaks the policy barriers for banks to custody crypto assets. Traditional financial giants such as JPMorgan Chase and Citi have successively laid out crypto asset custody businesses, and it is expected that the scale of management will exceed US$50 billion by the end of the second quarter of 2025.
In terms of regulatory personnel, crypto-friendly Paul S. Atkins took over as SEC Chairman, and the new leadership is pushing for adjustments to the Howey test standards, reducing the proportion of tokens that are considered securities and expanding the scope of ETF applicable assets. This series of reforms has released more potential growth space for the crypto market.
The capitalization wave of crypto companies is surging, and leading crypto companies such as Kraken and Fireblocks are preparing to go public, with valuations of approximately US$20 billion and US$9 billion respectively. At the same time, many top investment banks on Wall Street have set up crypto investment departments, and sovereign funds have also indirectly deployed Bitcoin by increasing their holdings of strategic technology companies.
At the same time, the United States is planning a federal Bitcoin reserve plan, proposing to purchase no more than 200,000 Bitcoins each year over the next five years to establish a distributed secure storage network as a long-term national strategic asset. Although there are still legislative and fiscal challenges in funding sources, related discussions have included Bitcoin in the forefront of national asset management.
Stablecoin legislation is also accelerating. In early 2025, Trump signed an executive order to encourage the development of compliant dollar-backed stablecoins, while prohibiting the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to protect market freedom and personal privacy. The rapid legislation of relevant bills will accelerate the integration of the traditional financial system and the crypto market, paving the way for the compliant issuance and application of stablecoins.
Based on the above background, HTX Ventures analyzed important indicators of the US economy. From a macro perspective, inflation data is controllable, but the economy has not yet shown obvious signs of recession. Non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate indicators show that the economy is still resilient, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will consider cutting interest rates after significant economic downward pressure appears. Before the rate cut comes, due to the tightening of liquidity, the US stock and crypto markets still face periodic volatility risks.
The passage of the Beautiful Big Bill budget resolution will continue the 2017 tax cut policy and add new tax incentives for the service industry and low- and middle-income groups. At the same time, raising the federal debt ceiling and adjusting fiscal spending mean that the US fiscal policy will continue to be loose in the future, which is expected to inject more liquidity into the capital market.
Overall, the crypto industry is playing an increasingly important role in the global macro game. Policy dividends, dollarization trends and institutionalization processes constitute the three pillars of this cycle. In future development, the market performance of crypto assets will be more closely intertwined with the global macro environment, geopolitics and monetary policy dynamics, presenting new cycle characteristics and investment opportunities. At the same time, as policies continue to relax, the future will inevitably give birth to a truly endogenous blockchain innovation narrative, injecting unprecedented vitality into the industry.
In this wave of change, HTX Ventures will continue to gain insights into global macro trends, explore potential opportunities, firmly support the compliance and innovative development of the crypto industry, and help build a more open, transparent and sustainable digital asset ecosystem.
About HTX Ventures
HTX Ventures is the global investment arm of Huobi HTX, integrating investment, incubation and research to identify the best and brightest teams in the world. As an industry pioneer, HTX Ventures has more than 11 years of experience in blockchain construction and excels in identifying cutting-edge technologies and emerging business models in the field. In order to drive growth within the blockchain ecosystem, we provide comprehensive support to projects, including financing, resources and strategic advice.
HTX Ventures currently supports more than 300 projects covering multiple blockchain fields, and some high-quality projects have been traded on Huobi HTX. In addition, as one of the most active FOF funds, HTX Ventures has invested in 30 top funds in the world, and cooperated with top global blockchain funds such as Polychain, Dragonfly, Bankless, Gitcoin, Figment, Nomad, Animoca and Hack VC to jointly build a blockchain ecosystem. Visit us .
If you need investment and cooperation, please feel free to contact VC@htx-inc.com
