As BTC surges to $112,000, financial markets are experiencing a historic revaluation of global bond yields and the U.S. dollar exchange rate, which is one of the key drivers of BTC’s recent surge to $112,000.
BTC price upside deepens driven by Asian macro
Although officials from many Asian countries have denied any coordinated intervention in exchange rates in response to the US trade deficit, emphasizing that the current currency movements are mainly due to life insurance companies and exporters hedging their large dollar exposure, the overall trend of exchange rate appreciation continues. As Asian currencies continue to strengthen, their economic impact is becoming more obvious: this change may put heavy pressure on regional economic growth in the coming months.
Similar to the US stock market rebound in mid-April, BTCs current rally was initially seen as driven by Trumps changing tariff rhetoric. But now his threats are mostly seen as symbolic moves, and BTCs continued upward movement is increasingly driven by deepening macroeconomic concerns in Asia. A key turning point came after the end of the US stock earnings season, when US corporate buybacks resumed and the price premium of the Coinbase platform compared to other exchanges expanded rapidly, indicating that US investors bullish sentiment has significantly increased as BTC broke through $87,000. .
As BTC value increases, new whales may emerge
Although MicroStrategy has purchased $4 billion worth of BTC in the past month, the real breakthrough came after May 7, after the market had been consolidating for two consecutive weeks. A deeper driving factor may be emerging: the market seems to be evolving towards a larger economic endgame, and BTC is increasingly becoming a core asset in it. The dominant force behind this round of gains is likely not MicroStrategy, but a new buyer who is more secretive but equally powerful. Identifying this buyer and his capital strength may be the key to judging the future direction of BTC.
Metaplanet rose 190%, Japanese retail investors may be the main buyers of BTC
Japanese consumer confidence is plummeting. The Bank of Japan slashed its 2024 economic growth forecast from 1.1% to just 0.5% at its May 1 meeting. Weak demand at government bond auctions has accelerated the inflow of funds into the BTC market, with Japanese retail investors increasingly becoming a dominant force.
Since the Bank of Japan’s announcement, Japan’s cryptocurrency “shadow stock” Metaplanet has risen 190% and its market value has risen to $4.8 billion, a 470% premium to its $845 million BTC assets. Given that Japan has not yet approved a BTC ETF and related regulatory policies are not expected to be introduced until next year at the earliest, the cost for investors to indirectly hold BTC through Metaplanet shares is close to $600,000 per coin.
Investing in Metaplanet is still highly speculative, given its inflated net asset valuation and a market cap that has skyrocketed from $40 million to $4.8 billion in just one year. Although the company currently holds about $845 million in BTC, its position size is still much smaller than MicroStrategy. Despite the sluggish Google search trends, the Japanese market is still worth paying close attention to - it is clear that funds are quietly continuing to build positions. There are increasing signs that the main buying of BTC comes from Asia - its main gains are usually concentrated in the Asian trading hours.
Disclaimer: The market is risky and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and unstable. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
