In early June, the crypto market faced a delicate situation of favorable policies and tight funds. Although core inflation continued to cool down and expectations of interest rate cuts increased, high-Beta assets still faced pressure in the short term. In this column, HTX Research Chloe (@ ChloeTalk 1 ) focuses on macro liquidity and market structure changes, analyzing the supporting factors behind Bitcoins resilience and the potential systemic risks of altcoins.
Geopolitical risks heat up: gold and crude oil rise together
Last week, Trump announced that he would increase import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, and planned to further extend tariffs to key mineral resources. The EU responded strongly and said it would take reciprocal retaliatory measures. At the same time, Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack on a Russian air base, which escalated the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and increased geopolitical risks. Against this backdrop, market risk aversion has risen significantly, gold prices have risen, and although OPEC+ announced an increase in production of 411,000 barrels per day from July, oil prices have risen due to supply concerns and geopolitical tensions.
Core inflation cools down, and the Fed has more room to turn dovish
PCE data in April performed steadily, with core PCE falling to 2.5% year-on-year, the lowest since 2021, indicating that inflation is gradually approaching the Feds long-term goal. In addition, the monthly rate of real personal consumption expenditure in the United States fell from 0.7% to 0.1%, showing obvious signs of cooling domestic demand, which is in line with the expectation of a soft landing. Fed Governor Waller pointed out that even if the tariff policy may bring short-term inflationary pressure, there is still a possibility of interest rate cuts within the year. The current mainstream market expectation is that September will be the time window for the first interest rate cut in this round.
Bond market issues warning: Yields rise to critical highs
Despite the dovish inflation data, US Treasury yields rose against the trend, with the 30-year yield rising to 5%, close to the 2023 high, and the 10-year yield approaching 4.6%. Driving factors include fiscal deficit concerns caused by the tax cut bill promoted by Congress, and the transmission of selling pressure from overseas bond markets (especially Japanese government bonds) to the US market. The strong money-making effect of the bond market has suppressed risky assets and suppressed the performance space of high-beta assets such as Bitcoin.
Mainstream remains stable, while copycats avoid
For Bitcoin, it is currently in a delicate stage of friendly policies and tight funds. On the one hand, there are continuous positive policies: legislation such as stablecoin regulation, Token Act and tax exemptions are progressing smoothly, and institutions continue to buy BTC, which also forms long-term support; on the other hand, the high yield of US Treasury bonds and the replenishment of TGA accounts put liquidity under pressure. In the short term, BTC is unlikely to break through strongly, and the probability of maintaining volatility is higher.
On-chain data shows that about 89% of short-term Bitcoin holders are still in a state of floating profit, which is close to the historical high, which means that potential profit-taking pressure is accumulating; while about 70% of long-term holders are still in profit, and the structure is relatively stable. At the same time, the MVRV Z-Score rose to around +1.6, indicating that market sentiment is optimistic but not overheated. In the derivatives market, open interest remained at a high level of more than US$23 billion, leveraged funds continued to pour in, the funding rate remained positive, and the option skew indicator also reflected the markets willingness to hedge against downside risks. Overall, although BTC has not deviated from the medium-term long structure, the short-term accumulation of funds and high leverage will increase volatility, and future trends still need to wait for clearer macro signals. In terms of altcoins, due to high volatility and lack of structural support, their systemic callback risks may be stronger than those of mainstream currencies.
Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation of any investment product.
About HTX DeepThink
HTX DeepThink is a crypto market insight column created by Huobi HTX, focusing on global macro trends, core economic data and crypto industry hotspots, injecting new thinking power into the market, and helping readers find order in chaos in the ever-changing crypto world.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research division of HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis, comprehensive reporting, and professional evaluation of a wide range of areas including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends. HTX Research is committed to providing data-based insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research always stays at the forefront of innovation, leading the development of industry thought, and promoting a deeper understanding of changing market dynamics.
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