Original article by Ilia Ilinskii
Compiled by Odaily Planet Daily Golem ( @web3_golem )
If all goes well, there are only two days left before the results of the US presidential election are announced. Trump leads the probability of winning on the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket and is already considered the winner in some polls.
Trump and his team have promised to take a more liberal approach to cryptocurrencies than the Democrats. Which of these are empty promises for vote-grabbing, and which have a better chance of being implemented and enforced? This article will analyze the changes that Trump might make to US cryptocurrency regulation if elected.
What promises did Trump make to the crypto community?
While Harris first mentioned cryptocurrency at the end of her campaign, Trump has discussed the topic several times this year. He has held personal events and conferences dedicated to cryptocurrency, including attending and speaking at a Bitcoin conference in Nashville in July.
During the event, Trump promised that he would not allow the creation of a CBDC (digital dollar) so as not to restrict the financial freedom of Americans . In addition, Trump promised to establish a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, and he emphasized that the US government under his leadership will no longer sell Bitcoin and will hold Bitcoin for a long time . He also pointed out that the United States will set up a special task force dedicated to cryptocurrency policy-the Presidential Advisory Committee on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency.
The Republican platform also has a paragraph dedicated to cryptocurrency — about protecting Americans’ right to dispose of their assets as they wish: “We will defend the right to mine Bitcoin and ensure that every American has the right to keep their own digital assets and trade them free from government surveillance and control.”
However, Republicans still emphasize that they will not allow the creation of CBDC, the governments digital currency, which is particularly important to liberal voters and wealthy Americans. After all, the attributes of CBDC mean that the governments control over currency is even greater than traditional fiat currency.
Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act — Trump Must Support
Republican Senator Cynthia Lumis also spoke at the Bitcoin conference where Trump made his promise to Bitcoin supporters. She introduced the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act just before the conference.
The bill requires the U.S. government to preserve its current Bitcoin reserves and purchase 1 million Bitcoins in addition (the law requires the U.S. government to purchase Bitcoins at least 200,000 per year over a five-year period). It also requires the establishment of a transparent proof-of-reserve system and prohibits the sale of Bitcoins already owned by the government.
If Trump is elected, he will certainly support the bill, but the passage of the bill depends on the position of Congress and the Senate, which will be clear if the Republicans gain a majority in the Senate. On the other hand, Democrats may at least modify some provisions of the bill or even advocate rejecting it because it is too populist and risky for public finances. However, there are also Democrats who support the bill, such as Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna.
What Really Matters to the Future of U.S. Crypto
However, Trump’s promise to block CBDCs and make Bitcoin a reserve is just the tip of the iceberg for cryptocurrency regulation in the United States . What matters to cryptocurrency businesses and ordinary users is the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the country as a whole – the rights of cryptocurrency users and opportunities for investors, licensing requirements for legal entities, and the taxation of cryptocurrency gains. So how would a Trump presidency affect this?
In fact, there are at least two more important pieces of legislation to discuss here than the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act :
21st Century Financial Innovation Act - Trump must support
The fundamental part of the new US legislation regarding cryptocurrencies is “FIT 21” – the Financial Innovation Act for the 21st Century, which is likely to be approved after the election. This is a long document that has been approved by the US Congress with bipartisan support – almost all Republicans and half of Democrats. However, the US Senate decided to postpone the bill until some time after the presidential election.
The future of this law actually depends on the position and election results of the future president of the United States. Most importantly, this law will bring more clarity to cryptocurrency regulation in the United States - now there are several regulatory agencies in the country, each with its own position on cryptocurrency regulation: SEC, CFTC, FINCEN, IRS, etc.
Many lawmakers believe that the SEC abuses its power and restricts the development of cryptocurrency businesses in the U.S. Two SEC commissioners (Hester Pierce and Mark Uyeda) have also expressed a lot of opinions on this. The FIT 21 Act is crucial to making the legal environment for cryptocurrency clearer and more transparent.
Since Cyntia Lummis supports Trumps Bitcoin reserve plan and she also participated in the formulation of the 21st Century Financial Innovation Act with Congressman Patrick McHenry, there is no doubt that this legislation will receive Republican support after the election, and Trump, as the president-elect, can support the Senates final approval of FIT 21.
Payment Stablecoin Bill — Hard to Predict Even if Trump Wins
The law, introduced by Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), creates a transparent framework for stablecoin regulation in the U.S., as there is no clear regulation now. Larger stablecoin issuers will be registered with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). The law prohibits algorithmic stablecoins and requires a 1-to-1 allocation. It also gives the Federal Reserve the power to control stablecoins, and small stablecoin issuers need to be licensed at the state level.
If Trump wins, the future of this law will be even more unpredictable — that’s why it has not been voted on in Congress. Moreover, Tether, Circle, and Coinbase have not expressed an official position on it. Nevertheless, given that the bill has support from both Republicans (Patrick McHenry, Maxine Waters, Cynthia Lummis) and Democrats (Kirsten Gillibrand) — and its requirements for stablecoin issuers can be called compromise, it may also be adopted after the presidential election, unless the new administration announces a different stance on stablecoins.
To some extent, it is in the interest of the United States to make stablecoins pegged to the US dollar available to users around the world. However, Janet Yellen (US Treasury Secretary) took an opposing position, pointing out the dangers of stablecoin issuers investing in US Treasuries. In the EU, due to some MiCA requirements, stablecoins are over-regulated, which has slowed the development of the local stablecoin market, while the new US president and lawmakers have the ability to formulate more flexible regulations for stablecoins.
Why Do Republicans (and Democrats) Care So Much About Cryptocurrency?
Lets look at this election from a different perspective. Politicians are not simply interested in innovation. Another possible reason why both Republicans and Democrats are so strongly in favor of the crypto industry is that the crypto industry provides a large amount of campaign donations. According to Public Citizen , in 2024, crypto companies spent $119 million on federal elections, which accounted for 44% of total corporate spending.
Most of the money has come through a special crypto industry PAC, Fairshake PAC, which was founded by Coinbase ($50 million), Ripple ($49 million), Jump Crypto ($15 million), Andersen Horovitz ($1.75 million), Payward, Circle, Paradigm, and a few other donors.
The group not only funds Republican candidates, but also some Democrats, and according to Public Citizen, its mission is also to prevent those who have a negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies from being elected.
In May, the Trump campaign began accepting cryptocurrency donations, and according to CNBC , it received about $7.5 million. Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey pledged to donate $15 million to Trump before his visit to Nashville, according to The Washington Post . Trump also received a $1 million Bitcoin donation from Gemini founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss. Harris and other Democrats have also received support from some cryptocurrency entrepreneurs, such as Chris Larsen (Ripple) and Tim Drapper.
While the money factor plays an important role, we cannot ignore another thing - the outgoing Biden administration (and Gary Gensler) made real mistakes in cryptocurrency regulation, and the FIT 21 bill with bipartisan support in Congress never passed. Without proper regulation of cryptocurrencies, the United States will have ceded its position in the cryptocurrency market to other countries.
in conclusion
The need for a new crypto bill to pass is imminent, and lawmakers are aware of it, and even if Harris wins the election, the crypto industry’s main opponent, Gary Gensler, may resign. But now the Republican Party and Trump’s position on the issue is clearer - as a party that is traditionally more loyal to businesses and investors.
The approval of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act will have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency investment market and will certainly be one of the actions of the new Trump administration. However, for ordinary Americans, the final passage of the FIT 21 Act and the Stablecoin Act is equally important.
But regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, the passage of the law also depends on elections in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
