Reference source: Bankless
Author: Golem ( @web3_golem )
I was wrong. I didnt expect the copycat season to come at the end of November.
In early November, when Bitcoin continued to rise and altcoins performed mediocrely, the market was still worried that there would be no altcoin market in this bull market, and most institutions and analysts also expressed negative views (Related reading: Bitcoin has reached a new high, can altcoins keep up? ). But by the end of November, TradingView data showed that the total market value of altcoins had nearly doubled since November, and Bitcoins market share fell to 51.4%. At the same time, some analysts said that BTCs market share was about to break through the multi-year support level, which significantly affected market sentiment, indicating that the altcoin season has arrived.
Being in the alt season also brings troubles, which tokens should I buy? Ryan Sean Adams, co-founder of Bankless, suggested that ETH will rise to $4,000 in the next 24 hours. Maybe this is just his personal FOMO speech, but Banklesss dedicated team of analysts has been predicting the price trends of some altcoins. Since the start of the alt season in November, they have predicted the price trends of 10 altcoins in the next three months.
This article will summarize the specific predictions and reasons of the Bankless analyst team for 10 bullish altcoins, and summarize the winning rate of their predictions for tokens expiring in late November to early December for readers reference.
Late November to early December expiration prediction success rate: 40%
Excluding the neutral tokens, there are 10 tokens predicted by the Bankless analysis team that will expire in late November or early December. The prediction results are as follows:
Forecasts are bullish but down: Euler (EUL) fell 27%;
Prediction is bearish but rising: Ethervista (VISTA) rose 66%, UMA Protocol (UMA) rose 78%; Filecoin (FIL) rose 55%, 1inch (1INCH) rose 80.75%, Blur (BLUR) rose 99.4%;
The predicted bearish trend was consistent with the actual decline: Sanctum (CLOUD) rose 99.69%, GMX (GMX) fell 18.04%, Kamino (KMNO) rose 206.37%, and Canto (CANTO) fell 55.14%.
Among them, Instadapp (INST), 1inch (1INCH) and Blur (BLUR) have the most serious backlash, while Kamino (KMNO), which has a higher predicted return, has risen by 206.37%. However, the overall winning rate of predicted expiration tokens from late November to early December is only 40%.
Bullish Coin Wrap
Aave (AAVE)
Track: DeFi
Reason: Net deposits and active loans continue to grow, and valuation indicators are favorable
Forecast period: December 2, 2024 to March 2, 2025
Predicted price: $238.91
Prediction of currency price performance so far: up 2.88%
On July 31, the Bankless analyst team was bullish on AAVE prices due to Marc Zeller’s “ temperature check ” proposal to upgrade the security module on July 25 and the key role that the AAVE token plays in the ecosystem.
In the past 30 days, AAVEs total active loans have reached $12.51 billion, up 46%, and net deposits have also increased to $31.37 billion, up 49% year-on-year. The increased demand for leverage has driven the expansion of loans and higher borrowing rates. For example, the current borrowing rate for USDT on Aave is 37% , driving Aaves revenue to surge 63%.
The price of AAVE tokens has only increased by about 16%, which is inconsistent with the growth rate of protocol revenue, indicating that the market may not fully reflect Aaves recent performance. Therefore, the Bankless analyst team continues to be bullish on AAVE.
Instadapp (INST)
Track: DeFi
Reason: Transaction volume continues to increase, protocol mechanism innovation
Forecast period: November 26, 2024 to February 26, 2025
Predicted price: $5.47
Prediction of currency price performance so far: up 36.01%
On July 16, the Bankless analyst team was bullish on INST prices because Fluid (a hybrid of money market and DEX) as a unified liquidity layer for Instadapp is expected to drive adoption and revenue growth. Since the launch of DEX on November 1, Fluids total trading volume has exceeded $1 billion. It currently ranks fifth in Ethereums 24-hour trading volume, second only to well-known projects such as Uniswap, Curve, Pendle and Balancer.
Fluid’s rapid success may be attributed to its innovative design. Users can earn returns not only from borrowers, but also from transaction fees. In addition, debt positions incur transaction fees that offset borrowing costs, a unique feature that improves capital efficiency.
Therefore, the Bankless analyst team continues to be bullish on its subsequent price performance, believing that the growing popularity of Fluid and its smart collateral and smart debt mechanisms are key drivers of increased transaction volume and efficiency in the DeFi field.
anoncast (ANON)
Track: SocialFi
Reason: Vitalik publicly endorses it, which has the potential to cause viral spread
Forecast period: November 21, 2024 to February 21, 2025
Predicted price: 0.04 USD
Prediction of currency price performance so far: down 37.29%
On the evening of November 20, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin purchased Base tokens for the first time through the “vitalik.eth” address, exchanging 0.082 ETH ($253) for 30.303k ANON through the DeFi aggregator ParaSwap.
ANON is the utility token for “ anoncast ”, a social experiment based on zero-knowledge proofs. Token holders with at least 15,000 ANON can post anonymous posts through the Farcaster account associated with the protocol, and holders with at least 1 million ANON can promote these posts on X/Twitter or delete existing posts.
While many experienced Base participants may be somewhat anxious about SocialFi tokens due to the FRIEND debacle, this experiment is different in that it requires anyone who wants to interact with it to purchase ANON.
The Bankless analyst team has bullish expectations for ANON’s price performance because, while the token lacks fundamental value, it has received public endorsement from Vitalik and could go viral if a larger crypto audience interacts with this novel experiment.
Near (NEAR)
Track: L1
Reason: AI narrative can attract the attention of investors
Forecast period: November 14, 2024 to February 14, 2025
Predicted price: 5.2 USD
Prediction of currency price performance so far: up 42.88%
On November 11, NEAR Protocol co-founder Illia Polosukhin proposed a plan to create the worlds largest open source model, which will have 1.4 trillion parameters and will be 3.5 times larger than Metas open source alternative Llama. According to Polosukhin via Cointelegraph , training and computing costs (estimated to be around $160 million) will be funded through the sale of NEAR tokens, and the model will run on a decentralized computing network.
While increased latency is a common drawback of decentralized computing networks, Polosukhin claimed that emerging research from Googles artificial intelligence subsidiary DeepMind shows that fast interconnects are possible.
The Bankless analyst team is bullish on NEARs subsequent price performance, because the advanced decentralized computing network centered on NEAR combined with Polosukins AI background will become a significant advantage for the network to attract users, developers, and capital. However, if the market suddenly finds that such activities have limited value, then selling NEAR to fund model development may pointlessly depress prices.
Solana (SOL)
Track: L1
Reason: Trumps election is positive, bullish FOMO sentiment continues
Forecast period: November 13, 2024 to February 13, 2025
Predicted price: $217.2
Prediction of currency price performance so far: up 9.12%
In September, the Bankless analyst team was not optimistic about the price performance of SOL, believing that it might fall as holders exit the ecosystem and turn to other alternative investment opportunities. Although SOL did not rise well compared to popular L1s such as APT and SUI, its price in US dollars rose steadily throughout October and broke out completely in early November due to favorable results of the US election.
The Bankless analyst team changed its forecast for SOL to bullish this time because it can still enjoy favorable catalysts under the Trump administration - such as spot ETF approval, and because it is in a bull market, so the markets general assumption for it can continue for the foreseeable future.
Helium Network (HNT)
Track: Infrastructure
Reason: Continuous growth in users and strategic cooperation with telecommunications companies
Forecast period: November 12, 2024 to February 12, 2025
Predicted price: $5.95
Prediction of currency price performance so far: up 43.87%
At the end of July, the Bankless analyst team was not optimistic about HNTs price performance, so the token was down 90% from its 2021 all-time high and 55% from its cycle peak on February 15. In addition, platform revenue has declined, and user growth has slowed significantly after peaking in early March.
However, since then, the Helium Networks data credit consumption rate has more than doubled, indicating that network usage has also doubled since July. This growth was mainly driven by Helium Mobile users, who increased from 105,336 at the time of the last forecast to 119,934.
While Helium Mobile’s total subscriber numbers may not be high in themselves, Helium’s strategic partnerships with telecom companies help boost network usage. For example, Telefonica saw an 18.1% increase in the number of devices connected to its IoT network between 2021 and 2022, followed by a 12.2% increase between 2022 and 2023.
Therefore, the Bankless analyst team is bullish on HNTs price performance and expects that the continued growth of Helium Mobile users and strategic partnerships with telecommunications companies will drive the usage of the Helium network, thereby having a positive impact on the entire Helium ecosystem.
Pendle Finance (PENDLE)
Track: DeFi
Reason: The protocol mechanism still has advantages in the bull market
Forecast period: November 8, 2024 to February 8, 2025
Predicted price: $5.19
Prediction of currency price performance so far: up 29.09%
On September 20, the Bankless analyst team issued a bearish PENDLE price forecast due to $360 million in earnings maturing later that month. While Pendle continued to offer market-leading yield opportunities at the time, its token price and total value locked had fallen sharply since late June 2024, when a large $3 billion in maturing debt emerged from the pool created near the peak of the airdrop frenzy in early 2024.
Although Pendle experienced a large outflow of TVL in September, the token price was not greatly affected, and TVL has been growing positively since October. Therefore, the Bankless analyst team is bullish on PENDLEs subsequent performance again, believing that its yield swap is still the leading mechanism in the market, and they will be in a favorable position for growth if the bull market of cryptocurrencies begins to accelerate.
Lido (LDO)
Track: LST
Reason: Trump’s election has stimulated the market’s optimism towards Ethereum-based tokens
Forecast period: November 7, 2024 to February 7, 2025
Predicted price: $1.34
Prediction of currency price performance so far: Up 56.72%
With the end of the US election, investors see Trumps victory in the presidential election as a positive for the crypto market. While Trump did not provide details of policies he believes could benefit cryptocurrencies during the campaign, he did promise to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, the regulator claiming that Lidos stETH is an unregistered security. In addition, before the election, Trump had raised $15 million in investment for World Liberty Financial (WLFI), an application that is expected to become an Aave deposit front end.
While the crypto industry’s hopes for a Trump administration remain largely based on speculation, the possibility that he will follow through on his vague promises and instruct executive branch agencies not to enforce regulations targeting crypto projects during his next four-year term, and the Republican sweep in Congress, opens the door to the possibility that the United States will enact such reforms into law.
Although the Bankless analyst team remains concerned about the continued decline in stETH market share and Lido profitability, the bullish view on LDO is based on the expectation that Trumps election should inspire investors optimism about an unknown but seemingly better future.
Uniswap (UNI)
Track: DeFi
Reason: Trumps election has stimulated market optimism
Forecast period: November 6, 2024 to February 6, 2025
Predicted price: $9.29
Prediction of currency price performance so far: up 65.12%
In October, Bankless was bearish on the UNI token due to the launch of Unichain by Uniswap. Although UNI fell more than 20% in the following month, it began to surge on November 6, becoming the largest rise since 2024 (second only to the rise on February 23, which was caused by the UNI fee conversion proposal, which was later blocked by the Uniswap Foundation), and the rise in November was due to Trump’s advantage in the general election.
The Bankless analyst team has re-emerged bullish on UNI’s price performance, anticipating that cryptocurrency participants will become more optimistic about the prospects for near-term industry regulation, particularly as they apply to tokens that could potentially distribute cash flows to holders in a dividend-like manner.
Jito（JTO）
Track: LST
Reason: Solana is the leader in the LST track, and the development of Meme coin will benefit it
Forecast period: November 1, 2024 to February 1, 2025
Predicted price: $2.29
Prediction of price performance so far: up 60.26%
In July, the Bankless analyst team was bullish on JTOs price performance, predicting that the deployment of Jitos native staking would consolidate its position as Solanas leading liquidity staking protocol. Although JTOs price fell 17% during the first three months of the forecast period, Jitos TVL steadily hit all-time highs in both USD and SOL in 2024.
The surge in the number of Meme coins on Solana has also increased MEV opportunities; due to the high slippage generated by these low-liquidity Meme pools, Jito’s daily SOL fees have reached an all-time high.
Therefore, the Bankless analyst team is bullish on JTO’s subsequent performance, believing that the protocol is consolidating its position as the number one liquidity staking protocol on Solana, and expects the popularity of Meme coins (and the tip payments generated by MEV arbitrageurs) to benefit Jito.
