Original author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On March 31, Bitcoins daily chart has fallen for four consecutive days, from $87,000 to $81,000. Ethereum is even bleaker, with the daily chart falling for seven consecutive days, from around $2,100 to $1,800. Solana is hovering around $130, and a number of altcoins are falling more than rising. According to CoinMarketCap data, the fear index is 24, which is still extremely panic.
According to Coinglass data, the total amount of liquidation of open positions in the entire network in the past 24 hours was 213 million US dollars, and the liquidation of long positions was 163 million. The largest liquidation occurred on Binances ETH/USDT, with a value of 13.3084 million US dollars.
The market has been falling for three consecutive months since it hit its peak in December last year. Retail investor sentiment is low. Will the market improve in the future?
Bitcoin spot ETF has seen net inflows for 10 consecutive days, but the pace is slowing down
The recent performance of Bitcoin spot ETF data is quite impressive. Since March 14, its net inflow has exceeded net outflow for 10 consecutive days, and the net inflow exceeded 100 million US dollars on March 17, 18 and 20. However, since March 21, its net inflow has not exceeded 100 million US dollars. On March 28, the spot ETF had a net outflow of 93 million US dollars, ending the 10-day consecutive net inflow.
Compared with Bitcoin, the Ethereum spot ETF is very pessimistic. Since the beginning of this month, only two days have achieved net inflows, and the rest have not had net outflows. Its coin price performance can also be imagined. Ethereums sluggish performance has also dragged down the performance of a number of altcoins to a large extent, especially L2, re-staking and other tracks.
Market risk aversion due to US tariff policy on April 2
On March 31, the Japanese stock market fell 4%, the South Korean stock index fell 2.3%, and US futures also fell in early trading. With the US tariff policy about to be announced on April 2, market uncertainty will reach a new peak. According to CCTV News on Saturday, it was learned on March 28 local time that US President Trump plans to announce new tariffs in the next few days. He said he was open to reaching tariff agreements with other countries, but he hinted that any agreement would be reached after the tariff measures take effect on April 2.
In its latest report, Citigroup summarized three main scenarios and gave corresponding market impacts. The first is that only reciprocal tariffs are announced. In this scenario, the market reaction is relatively limited. The second is reciprocal tariffs plus value-added tax (VAT). The US dollar index may immediately rise by 50-100 basis points, and global stock markets may also fall. The third is that in addition to reciprocal tariffs and VAT, industry tariffs are also included. In this scenario, the market reaction may be more intense.
After the SP 500 suffered its worst start to the first quarter since 2020, analysts warned that the potential for subsequent declines is greater than increases. Some analysts pointed out that future tariffs and retaliatory actions are key, and the market reaction on April 2 will largely depend on the timing of tariffs, especially industry tariffs, and how quickly other countries respond to reciprocal tariffs.
The crypto market, led by Bitcoin, is increasingly closely tied to the performance of the U.S. stock market. Therefore, as the first risk asset to be affected, it will also face huge fluctuations before and after the policy is announced. In addition, on the evening of April 4, the U.S. will release unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data, and then Powell will deliver a keynote speech. With the arrival of intensive data and policies, some market investors choose to leave the market and wait and see.
Subsequent market
Bloomberg Intelligence commodity strategist Mike McGlone analyzed that the market should now pay attention to the price trend of ETH, because there is a clear connection between the prices of ETH and other risky assets in the market. If the stocks in the SP 500 index continue to be weak, ETH may fall further. At the same time, Mike McGlone believes that ETH returning to the $2,000 level may point the way for risky assets. However, if Bitcoin cannot resume stable price growth, it may aggravate the losses of altcoins, especially the head altcoins will continue to weaken, and even cause ETH to fall back to the $1,000 price level later this year.
David Duong, chief strategy research officer at Coinbase, said that the market reaction on April 2 will be relatively calm, but the warning here is that no one is ready for this, mainly because there are too many variables to track and too many paths to consider. This exposes us to some extreme possibilities, especially in terms of the performance of specific industries and the greater impact on the economy. However, with the earnings season soon becoming the next major focus, the market will not be ready to take a major view until mid-April.
Paoul, founder of Real Vision, forwarded the chart of global liquidity M2 and Bitcoin price trend, and said that the market is in the bottom range.
