BALL is a big hit, but the transparency of its principle is questionable
On the morning of June 3, a new token suddenly appeared on the Solana chain: Powerball ( BALL ) .
CA: BALLrveijbhu42QaS2XW1pRBYfMji73bGeYJghUvQs6y
This token, which focuses on lottery drawing on the chain, has attracted a large number of on-chain gamblers with its hourly lottery draw. The GMGN market shows that its market value has risen from a million to 19 million US dollars (see the figure below), and then plummeted to less than 2 million US dollars in just a few hours (see the figure below). It rose again, FOMO broke out, and the market value was close to the previous high (see the figure below). It seems to be riding an emotional roller coaster on the chain.
The climax occurred at 17:00 on June 3 (before and after ① in the figure), with the prize pool of this hour reaching 1611.88 SOL (about 245,732 USD) , and the first prize went to the address 5qLjEfQtuuspKPfJQjC1xG6KZMEJoWNMBPqp1GGN8K76 . However, according to GMGN , the last time this address purchased other tokens was 300 days ago. As soon as the news came out, some people in the community thought he was extremely lucky, while others questioned insider manipulation, which immediately triggered a sell-off, and the price of BALL plunged all the way.
There are community users ( @real_dr_pump ) raised several concerns, pointing out that the lottery principle is not completely open and transparent, and is not fully automated as the official claims:
But the charm of on-chain lottery lies in that when the price is low enough, many people are eager to win and start bottom-fishing, and the snowball starts rolling again. Even if there are many doubts, when you are still scolding the project, the market value has rebounded from the low point to 18 million US dollars, almost back to the high point.
What is BALL? A traditional lottery on the blockchain
Powerball ( BALL ) is an hourly lottery built on Solana with a very simple and straightforward mechanism:
Every 10,000 BALLs count as one draw qualification;
The system automatically sends all the prize pool to one winner at every hour.
The bonus pool funds come from transaction taxes : 5% for buying and selling, 10% of which goes to the development team, and the rest goes into a unified bonus pool address.
It is worth noting that the probability of winning is not equal, but is calculated according to the number of positions held.
In just 48 hours after BALL went live:
Maximum market value: $19 million;
Maximum single prize pool: 1611.88 SOL;
The fluctuation before and after the maximum increase was close to 90%.
Imitators emerge
1. LOTTO (7cC5S2uoKB5nQofua8Mobdd7bnf7uGiM8WiLJc8a1MGJ)
LOTTO appeared earlier than BALL. Unlike BALL, LOTTO draws prizes every half an hour and a grand prize every 24 hours. 5% of each purchase and sale will go into the prize pool.
LOTTO attracted attention only after BALL triggered the craze of on-chain lottery, and its market value reached as high as 1.7 million US dollars. It is worth noting that LOTTO started a small rally on June 6 after it almost returned to zero. I guess it was because some big investors bought the bottom and then pulled up the market, and the highest market value of this round was close to 800,000 US dollars.
2. MILLIONS (EqUJWhw3WHCrEEfcPVDigSkGapNfYWY2cuzRo6437obu)
MEGA MILLIONS (MILLIONS) has an 8% handling fee for each purchase and sale, of which 10% will be distributed to the dev team, 86% will be distributed to the winners, and 2% will be burned. Only those who hold 100,000 MILLIONS can participate in the lottery. Its market value is as high as 1 million US dollars, and then it also hovers around 200,000 US dollars with the decline of the leading BALL. Like LOTTO, there was a secondary market on June 5, but it was also unsustainable, and the market value rose to 700,000 US dollars at its highest.
3. ULUCKY (0xb8a767005f91f0cac94c4bfb552386e072fe1bad)
USD 1 LUCKY (ULUCKY) is a lottery imitation on the BSC chain. It surged to 500,000 US dollars in a short period of time after opening, and then fell rapidly. However, when the leading BALL returned to near a new high, it completely triggered FOMO. The market value once surged to 1.8 million US dollars. In addition, its mechanism is relatively simple, and the prize is automatically drawn every hour.
4. EPOT (0xd39368a84a07f6f52a63e7872d90fdbcbd7553b4)
Ether pot (EPOT) is a copycat on ETH. Due to the high gas and low liquidity on the ETH chain, the sentiment ferments slowly, so this leader appeared later.
Each Ether pot token is counted as a lottery ticket. Each transaction of EPOT has a 5% handling fee, of which 3% goes to the 30-minute prize pool, 1% goes to the 24-hour super prize pool, and another 1% is used for development and marketing from the total handling fee.
In addition, the gambling mentality of ETHs on-chain players may not be very strong, and after a wave of popularity, it has completely lost attention.
On-chain lottery: the ultimate form of speculation?
BALL is like its name, a lottery ticket, and also a huge snowball. If someone wants to win the jackpot, there will be people trading. The larger the trading volume, the bigger and more attractive the prize will be. Web3 will never lack gamblers. On the chain, this kind of speculation and FOMO psychology is infinitely magnified, and they have rolled this snowball to nearly 20 million US dollars.
However, what can be predicted is that when the market value is too high, the cost of buying lottery tickets will also be too high, and no one will be willing to take over here, so there will definitely be large fluctuations. When the price is low enough and the sentiment is still there, someone will buy at the bottom.
BALL is different from other dividend coins. It does not talk about equal wealth but getting rich quickly . Dividend coins allow everyone to share a little, while BALL throws all the profits to one person at once. This possibility of getting rich quickly is the ultimate pursuit of players on the chain.
At the same time, gamblers are fickle and profit-seeking . No matter how new the gameplay is or how attractive the returns are, they cannot escape the fact that the essence of the game is still Meme. Meme is the best speculative tool, and few people will invest in value in Meme. The current market value of BALL fluctuates between 2 million and 4 million US dollars. I think this round of lottery carnival has come to an end, and similar products cannot continue .
As I have been deeply involved in Meme on BSC recently, I don’t have a good grasp of the Meme market value and sentiment on the Solana chain. I developed a fear of heights when facing BALL, and watched it rise all the way. My colleague Harbour also reminded me: “Just because it’s not a new concept doesn’t mean it won’t rise. ” Yes, as long as it can cause emotional resonance and trigger FOMO , combined with the sentiment on the chain in recent days, and estimate its highest market value, there is no need to be afraid of heights. So if you want to become a professional p player, you still have to spend more time sitting and scanning the chain and keep going. The popularity of BALL this time was close to 12 hours, which is already a long time on the chain.
Odaily editorial department review of related operations
I sent CA to the small group at 12:00 on June 3, when BALL was worth $1 million, and then watched BALL rise all the way to a peak of nearly $20 million at 16:00 in the afternoon, but I missed out on all the gains. My colleague golem got on board at $4 million and left after earning three times the profit.
Then I found LOTTO, an on-chain lottery project that was earlier than BALL. I bought it at around 16:20 on June 3rd, when the market value was $170,000. Less than 10 minutes later, the market value doubled, and I sold all of it. Since then, its market value has soared to $1.7 million. Although I didn’t miss out on this operation, I sold a lot.
ULUCKY, a copycat on BSC, was released at around 16:00 on the same day. It immediately rose to a market value of US$500,000, and then almost completely returned to zero after only about 15 minutes. At this time, my colleague Nan Zhi and I both sold our stocks and left the market, and did not participate in the second wave of growth that began at around 23:00 on the same day. Its market value once surged to US$1.8 million. It would have been a pity not to buy at the bottom during this period.
Risk Warning: This article does not constitute investment advice. The on-chain meme is extremely volatile and highly speculative and risky. Please be sure to DYOR and participate with caution. As of press time, BALL has lost its popularity and similar products are close to zero...
