Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )
Author | Ethan ( @ethanzhang_web3 )
Following yesterdays US strike on Irans nuclear facilities and Israels continued multiple rounds of air strikes, the geopolitical storm continues to stir up financial markets.
This morning, US President Trump made controversial remarks on Truth Social : If the current Iranian regime cannot make the country great again, why cant there be a regime change? He even shouted the political slogan MIGA (Make Iran Great Again) at the end. The remarks spread quickly and were widely interpreted as potentially paving the way for the escalation of geopolitical conflicts.
The crypto market fell again. According to OKX market data, BTC fell below $99,000 this morning, reaching a low of $98,188, a new low since May 12, and the 24-hour decline once exceeded 4.4%. As of press time, the BTC price rebounded to $101,014, a daily increase of 0.67%. ETH fell to $2,111 today, with the largest 24-hour decline exceeding 10%, and has now rebounded to $2,232.
In the derivatives market, Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total amount of liquidation in the entire network reached 634 million US dollars, of which BTC liquidation was 231 million US dollars and ETH liquidation was 189 million US dollars. Most of them were long orders, and leverage cleaning was obvious.
Meanwhile, the Fear Greed Index on Alternative.me fell back to 47 (Neutral) from 42 (Fear) yesterday, with sentiment recovering slightly.
Collection of market outlook: bull-bear game on the edge of the storm
Santiment: The bombing incident shows that the situation has further deteriorated, and the stability of Bitcoin prices may be due to the weekend night time in the United States
Santiment, a crypto market analysis agency, posted on the X platform that the US military bombed Iranian nuclear facilities on the 22nd, marking a significant escalation of the exchange of fire between Israel and Iran that has lasted for more than a week. In the United States, New York Democratic Representative Ocasio-Cortez has called for the initiation of impeachment proceedings against Trump, while supporters believe that this move is crucial to curbing the development of Irans nuclear capabilities. Global politicians and analysts have warned that Iran may retaliate through cyber attacks, proxy armed attacks or cutting off oil transportation channels. There are currently about 40,000 US troops stationed in the region, and the situation may deteriorate further as Trump himself threatens to use stronger force to counter retaliatory actions.
According to Santiment social indicators, the number of mentions of the keyword Iran surged immediately after the news broke. Bitcoin prices remained surprisingly stable, but this may be due to the fact that the incident occurred on the weekend night (US time). Such geopolitical crises usually cause market fluctuations as investors assess the risk of war expansion.
Arthur Hayes: Crypto market weakness will eventually pass, and Bitcoins safe-haven properties will be recognized
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said in a post on the X platform today that the current market weakness is only temporary. As central banks continue to expand the scale of banknote issuance on the grounds of national interests, the value of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset will become increasingly apparent, and its status will eventually be widely recognized by the market.
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin demand is slowing, potential support area is around $92,000
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said that after a period of accelerated growth that brought the price to nearly $112,000, Bitcoin demand is showing signs of cooling. Spot demand is still growing, but the growth rate has slowed and is now below the historical trend. Bitcoin purchases by whales and ETFs have halved. Demand from new investors is also falling. In the futures market, investors have recently chosen to take profits and start to establish new short positions. If demand continues to be weak, Bitcoin may find support around $92,000, which corresponds to the traders actual on-chain cost price and is a typical support area during bull markets. If this support fails, the next support level may be $81,000, close to the lower track of the traders actual on-chain cost price.
James Wynn: Increase short positions, BTC short-term target is $93,000 to $95,000
James Wynn posted on the X platform that he has increased short positions and set a short-term target price of Bitcoin at $93,000 to $95,000. He pointed out that the market has not fully reflected the real risks in the context of more countries joining the war. In addition, there is no expectation of a rate cut in the United States. The so-called long logic relies only on the expansion of global liquidity, but this does not come from the US dollar system.
He further proposed a conspiracy theory that the U.S. government may hope to force Bitcoin to fall through some kind of black swan event to create an opportunity for itself to build a position at a low level.
Konstantins Vasilenko: MiCA framework boosts the growth of European crypto market, while US retail trading is cold
According to Paybis co-founder Konstantins Vasilenko, in the first quarter of 2025, after the MiCA regulation came into effect, trading volume of EU customers increased by 70% month-on-month. During the same period, retail trading activity in the US market showed a downward trend. Kaiko estimates that only 18% of Coinbases spot trading volume currently comes from retail investors, down from 40% in 2021. Robinhoods crypto trading volume also fell by 35% in the first quarter of 2025.
Vasilenko said that MiCA will open the licensing window on January 1, 2025, and the newly injected funds will be larger and more purposeful. The MiCA framework introduces a single licensing system for all EU member states and imposes strict regulations on stablecoins, requiring 1:1 reserves, audits, and asset segregation, thereby enhancing investor confidence.
In contrast, continued regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. has hampered market development. Despite pro-cryptocurrency rhetoric from President Trump and members of his administration, comprehensive federal crypto legislation has yet to be introduced.
Conclusion: The market is pricing in the “breadth of the war”
Market fluctuations in the geopolitical storm are no longer just a numbers game, but a collective vote on global risk attitudes. Trumps call for MIGA has made the Iranian issue no longer just a military conflict, but a political mobilization; and crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have become liquidity regulators and capital game carriers in this round of violent fluctuations.
From liquidation data to on-chain bottom-fishing, from short-selling layout to technical support, what the market is pricing is not whether the war will break out, but whether the war will expand and whether the policy bull market will truly come to an end.
Next, if BTC holds the support range of 98,000 to 101,000, and ETH continues to attract institutional investors to increase their positions, the crypto market may usher in a recovery period after the structural wash amid high volatility. However, if geopolitical risks continue to spill over and the Fed sends fewer dovish signals, it may be the starting point for a new round of liquidity withdrawal.
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The United States strikes Irans nuclear facilities, and ETH becomes a fuel and falls 7%
