With the Federal Reserve sending out interest rate cut signals and the cryptocurrency policy continuing to be favorable, market liquidity has fully recovered and crypto assets have ushered in a wave of violent rises. Bitcoin has strongly broken through $120,000, setting a new record high; Ethereum is approaching $4,000, hitting a six-month high. The micro-strategy of altcoins continues to spread, coupled with the resonance of ETFs and macro policies, market sentiment has rapidly heated up, and FOMO sentiment has spread across the board.
After this round of fierce upward movement, where will the subsequent trend of BTC and ETH go? Take a look at the latest views of frontline traders in the market.
Macro analysis
@CryptoHayes
ETH is gradually getting rid of its sideways state and becoming the core infrastructure for the tokenization of Wall Street assets and the expansion of stablecoins. With the rising demand for stablecoins such as USDC and USDT, and the continued deployment of real-world assets (RWA) on Ethereum, the use value and on-chain activity of ETH have rebounded significantly. At the same time, the recovery of risk appetite and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have jointly promoted the return of liquidity and accelerated the upward rhythm of ETH. The structural benefits of ETH are also being transmitted to its ecosystem. The DeFi protocol has ushered in a rebound in transaction and staking demand, and the activity of the NFT sector has also rebounded. The entire Ethereum ecosystem is regaining growth momentum.
Technical Analysis
@Cato_CryptoM
From a technical perspective, BTCs one-hour price has been rising continuously and is close to breaking through the range limit, and there is an obvious divergence in the one-hour range; the four-hour price is at the resistance position of the upper track of the range, the trend is strong, and there is no divergence in the range; the daily price has broken through MA 7 again, maintaining an optimistic and strong trend.
Support, short-term reference 117, 000 4-hour support, key support reference 113, 700. Expand the support range to prevent possible large fluctuations tonight. Resistance, short-term resistance 119, 000, key resistance previous high 121, 000 position, this position is broken again and stabilized, you can try to see a new high.
@biupa
The second round of Bitcoins rise may begin. Bitcoin has been sideways for eight days since its peak. There are signs of a breakthrough at the end of the triangle convergence. After breaking through the upper resistance of 121,000 to 123,200, it can go to 126,000-130,000. If Bitcoin breaks through, the market may refocus on Bitcoin, Ethereum will enter a sideways consolidation, and the cottage may continue to rise synchronously with Bitcoin (non-E series). Therefore, you can pay attention to SOL series currencies.
@market_beggar
At present, the position of the URPD gap is about 111 K ~ 115 K, and the position on the price chart is roughly around 112 K ~ 115 K. As shown in the figure, if the current small-scale oscillation range is broken downward, the gap area may not effectively stop the decline due to weak support. Therefore, when judging the first support level, I personally use 112 K as a reference.
The logic of this 112 K is very simple: it is the top of the consolidation zone from May 9 to July 9, and the price broke through this zone strongly on July 10. We can temporarily assume that this consolidation zone is the area where the main funds accumulate funds in stages.
The second position worth noting is 104,059, which corresponds to the current average cost of short-term holders (STH-RP), which is also located within the aforementioned consolidation zone.
Data Analysis
@Murphychen 888
Active investors, who account for a larger proportion, can truly represent the overall market sentiment. The BTC they hold do not have such a high profit rate when they sell, and most of them are between 20% and 100%, which is a reasonable rate. As we can see from Figure 2, whenever this group cashes out intensively, the market sentiment is the hottest. However, the current data seems to be far behind the previous two rounds of market conditions.
Therefore, although we have seen high realized profits after BTC broke through the historical high of $12w, if we look at it in detail, the selling behavior of individual ancient whales has a greater impact on the data. But the overall sentiment is not yet at its most Fomo, or the market pressure is not that heavy.
@CryptoPainter_X
ETH currently has a small liquidation zone at 3500. If the price continues to pull back this week, 3500 will be the level that will pick you up.
It has been clearly stated before that the main driving force behind this wave of ETHs strong bullish trend comes from spot buying, which is most likely related to coin-share subscription. The emergence of this model will bring a large amount of spot demand.
But the question that follows is the same, that is, whether these cryptocurrency stocks have the ability to obtain continuous financing like MicroStrategy?
If you simply push up the coin price and stock price, and then choose the right time to issue additional stocks to cash out, then ETH will lose continuous spot buying and start to fluctuate at this position.
Once volatility begins, the liquidity of the futures market will dominate price behavior...
Therefore, in addition to paying attention to the support of 3500 and choosing the right time to go long, we should also pay attention to the stock prices of companies that conduct coin-to-stock financing based on ETH. Whether their behavior is sustainable and whether they can hold the spot will determine the final height of this round of ETH!
In general, the trend structure of ETH is still a strong bullish trend, so even if there is a pullback, it is not recommended to short, but wait for an opportunity to go long.
@AxelAdlerJr
At todays price of $117,000, Bitcoin is in the growth zone between the median investor price ($92,000) and the hype alarm level ($139,000). This shows that buying activity is still supported by market participants: they are willing to hold or increase their positions as long as the price remains above their comfort zone. At the same time, we have not yet entered the stage of excessive optimism, and Bitcoin still has room to rise further to $139,000 without serious risks of overheating.
