On October 21, the OKX Chinese Community and Odaily Planet Daily jointly held an AMA event with the theme of BTC is about to hit a new high, how to optimize your trading strategy? This Space was hosted by OKX Mercy, and the guests included Qin Xiaofeng, deputy editor-in-chief of Odaily Planet Daily , and five well-known industry figures including Michael, Stitch and Alvin. The guests not only shared their views on the current and future market conditions, but also explained how they can use OKX products to invest rationally and avoid investment risks.
The following is a transcript of the community conversation, compiled by Odaily Planet Daily:
OKX: Hello everyone, I am Mercy from OKX, mainly responsible for the operation of KOL and Twitter channels. If you have any recommendations for high-quality customers or any questions about OKX products, please send me a private message. It is my honor to host this Space. Next, please introduce yourselves, guests?
Qin Xiaofeng: Good evening, everyone. I am Qin Xiaofeng, deputy editor-in-chief of Odaily Planet Daily. We were founded in 2018 and have been around for more than six years. We have occupied an important position in the Chinese media in the crypto industry. We have always been committed to providing high-quality content. Thank you for your support.
Michael: Hello everyone, I am Michael, the host of BTV Chinese Channel and CoinChain. Our channel sorts out major projects and dynamics in the currency circle, chain circle and mining area every day, aiming to help Web2 users better understand the Web3 world. The channel has been in operation for five years as of October 26. Thank you for your support. There will be a special airdrop event on the fifth anniversary.
Stitch: Hello everyone, I am Stitch from Bijie.com. Bijie.com is a professional Web3 media with rich investment and research directions. I hope everyone will pay attention to us and get more high-quality information.
Alvin: Hello everyone, I am Alvin, from the Shenyin community. Our community has existed in the cryptocurrency circle for four or five years. I personally have seven or eight years of experience in this industry and have experienced many rounds of bull and bear markets. I consider myself an old leeks. Recently, I mainly participate in short-term transactions, and long-term spot holdings. I usually interact with the fan community.
OKX: Since the Fed announced the rate cut, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, breaking through $68,000 last week. What do you think are the main driving factors of the current market?
Qin Xiaofeng: I think there are two reasons for the recent rise in Bitcoin. First, in terms of macroeconomics, the Feds interest rate cut has attracted market attention. Since the 2022 rate hike, Bitcoin has failed to rise until the recent unexpected 50 basis point rate cut, which caused a strong market reaction, and then the price of Bitcoin approached $69,000. This rate cut has injected new liquidity into the market, and investors concerns about inflation and currency depreciation have increased demand for risky assets. Secondly, the launch of ETFs has increased the acceptance of cryptocurrencies in traditional markets, and traditional financial institutions such as Fidelity and Bellece have also begun to inflow funds, driving Bitcoin up. Since September, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have continued to have net inflows, proving that the influx of traditional funds is an important factor in driving Bitcoin.
Alvin: I basically agree with Mr. Qins point of view. The interest rate cut and the recent war and election expectations have jointly affected market sentiment. The inflow of ETFs is mainly net inflow, especially the recent absorption of $20 billion in funds, which shows the interest of institutions in the market. In the short term, I am optimistic and believe that market sentiment is positive.
Stitch: I think the main factors driving the market are still production cuts and election sentiment. We expect a big bull run in the middle of next year, but before that we may experience a strong correction and fall below $55,000.
Michael: The factors that drive Bitcoins rise vary, but sentiment is key. Currently, more than 20% of U.S. cryptocurrency users are using cryptocurrencies, which are increasingly influential in politics. In addition, the growth in the issuance of stablecoins also reflects the influx of new funds into the cryptocurrency market, with the current market value of stablecoins exceeding $200 billion. The launch of ETFs represents the entry of traditional capital, and Trumps statement has further boosted market sentiment. Historical data shows that there is no simple correspondence between the price of coins and the Feds rate hikes and cuts, so a variety of factors need to be considered comprehensively. Combined with technical indicators, there is currently a potential upward trend, and we predict that Bitcoin is expected to reach $120,000 in the future. I hope Trump will become the first U.S. president to support cryptocurrency.
OKX: In this round of interest rate cuts, can Bitcoin break through its previous high? What is the highest point it can reach?
Michael: Before the fundamentals completely changed, my prediction for this bull market was that Bitcoin would reach $150,000, which should be the peak state. However, after attending the Nashville Bitcoin Conference, I saw that Bitcoins influence at the political level was increasing, so I thought this number might be higher. If Trump can win the election, the expectation of $150,000 may be raised to $200,000 or even $250,000. The Bitcoin market is no longer a simple game, but a market full of expectations. If traditional capital can enter and ETFs can be opened in various countries, it will be a huge improvement. The follow-up of the Asian market will further promote the development of this bull market, and I think the bottom should be $150,000.
Stitch: I have a different view on this round of bull market. I think this is a long-term bull market, and there will no longer be a bull market every three or four years. The pattern of the currency circle has changed, and it is no longer a game for a small circle. Therefore, I expect the price of Bitcoin to be between $80,000 and $100,000 next year. If you look at it in the longer term, there is a possibility of 200,000, 300,000 or even 1 million.
Alvin: The current price of Bitcoin is close to $70,000, and it has been sideways around $68,000 for more than a week. In the short term, bullish momentum is strong, but accidents are the norm in the cryptocurrency world. I dont pay much attention to technical indicators, but prefer to analyze news and sentiment. After a week of brewing, everyone is generally bullish, which makes me uneasy. Therefore, I began to turn bearish. If the price of Bitcoin can break through $100,000, I think it may fluctuate between $100,000 and $120,000. But I am not optimistic in the short and medium term.
Qin Xiaofeng: I am still optimistic about the market. The market is no longer dominated by a small circle, and the lows of the past few rounds of bull markets have been rising. Bitcoin and Ethereum are gradually becoming mainstream, and traditional institutions are constantly buying them, especially MicroStrategy continues to issue bonds for financing and purchase Bitcoin. Driven by a large amount of funds, I think Bitcoin is not easy to collapse unless there are several flash crashes similar to this year, such as Mentougou. Despite the market fluctuations, it is very likely that the price will remain above 50,000. I am optimistic that Bitcoin will break through 80,000 US dollars this year, and may directly break through the 100,000 US dollar mark next year. Even if there is a short-term flash crash, I believe that the price will rebound quickly and remain in a high range.
OKX: The current BTC market is close to its historical high. What key technical or fundamental signals do you think can help investors optimize their trading strategies?
Alvin: I don’t rely too much on technical indicators. I think they have a low weight in the cryptocurrency world, about 10%. The current market is still in its early stages and is relatively wild. Compared with mature markets, technical indicators have limited reference value. Instead, I pay more attention to macro news, such as the upcoming election, micro-strategy shorting, and the monthly important news calendar, which can reflect market trends and sentiment. I also pay attention to capital inflows, market depth, and liquidation tables, but I will not blindly follow technical indicators.
Michael: K-line indicators do reflect historical probabilities. If you rely solely on these indicators for trading, the risk is very high. We need to understand how technical indicators affect market sentiment and trading behavior, but we must also be aware of the possibility that dealers use these indicators to reverse operations. For example, in the recent pullback, although large institutions such as Grayscale are selling Bitcoin, the number of addresses holding coins is rising, showing that large investors are still actively buying. This shows that there may be unrecognized buying power behind it. Therefore, I think observing the changes in Bitcoin holding addresses is an effective way to obtain real market signals.
Stitch: I have similar views to the previous two teachers. Basically, I don’t look at the K-line. I mainly analyze the current situation from the perspective of the global economic environment, changes in exchanges, and the degree of market prosperity. If the number of exchanges is decreasing, it usually means that the industry is developing rapidly and funds are becoming more and more concentrated. Although the market has not yet reached a stage of true prosperity, I believe that there will be more channels for new and old investors to enter this market in the future. As early participants, we are opening up opportunities in this field. In the long run, I think we are the pioneers of this industry.
Qin Xiaofeng: I will pay attention to the leverage ratio of the market, especially the Coinglass contract position indicator. These data can reveal the gains and potential resistance of the market. For example, if the current price moves upward and may lead to a large number of short positions being liquidated, the market will most likely choose this direction. Everyone does interpret the same indicator differently, but I think it is very important to understand the background and impact of these data. Whether it is technical indicators or macro news, trading strategies must ultimately be formulated in combination with the actual market situation.
OKX: As BTC approaches a new high, should investors consider gradually taking profits or continuing to hold? Will the guests adjust the proportion of their investment portfolio when BTC reaches a new high?
Michael: I agree with the idea of gradual profit taking. As mentioned before, a teacher has already started selling, which I think is a wise choice. My spot orders on OKX are among the best in terms of size and number of followers. In terms of trading strategy, we are divided into base positions and short-term operations. The base position is the assets in my cold wallet, which are completely immobile and will not be sold before Bitcoin reaches 1 million US dollars. In terms of short-term operations, I will adopt a strategy of selling while rising, so that as the market rises, I will recover some profits in time and prepare to buy again in future corrections. Even if Bitcoin breaks through 70,000, 80,000, and 90,000, my spot position ratio will gradually increase. In recent transactions, our profit rate has also reached a satisfactory 100%. In the short term, I will frequently adjust my positions according to market trends to cope with the ever-changing market.
Alvin: Michael and I have similar views, but my strategy is slightly different. I mainly operate through contract trading, while spot trading is mainly in the medium and long term. Previously, due to the large volatility of altcoins, I turned more funds to spot trading. In the past six months, the performance of spot trading has made me a little helpless, and there is almost no chance to escape. Recently, I have begun to gradually settle profits, especially when the market is rising. No matter what the market is like, I will definitely sell part of my positions. I will never hold blindly, especially when the profit reaches the expected level, I will sell without hesitation. At the same time, when the market hits a new high, I will transfer part of the funds to current financial products for flexible operation. My current financial management interest has accumulated more than 10,000 dollars, which provides me with a stable source of income, allowing me to operate when the market is good.
Qin Xiaofeng: I personally think that Bitcoin can still be held at this position, because I believe that Bitcoin will break through the previous high, which is about 74,000 US dollars. I expect the market may fluctuate several times in this range, which will bring more opportunities to investors. Although the current market is still dominated by Bitcoin, I believe that altcoins will also have their own performance in the future. For those investors who hold altcoins and are in a loss-making state, I suggest not to rush to sell, but wait for Bitcoin to break through the previous high, and the market will turn to altcoins. At that time, investors can seize this wave of rise and then consider shipping, and avoid rushing to stop losses at the current node to avoid the situation of falling before dawn.
Stitch: Regarding investment strategy, our foundation has always been to split positions and adopt a step-by-step layout. When the market approaches a key point, I will consider large-scale operations. Liquidity is the key in trading, and we must be sensitive to the ups and downs of the market. As Mr. Qin said, the current market trend determines our operation strategy. We need to respond flexibly to maximize our benefits. Long-term holding and timely adjustment are both reasonable choices. In my opinion, the essence of trading is to make profits by taking advantage of market fluctuations, and the right entry and exit timing is the key to determining profitability. Through reasonable capital allocation and strategy adjustment, we can seize opportunities in an uncertain market.
OKX: The market tends to be more volatile, what risk management measures can help protect returns? Do you use leverage tools or derivatives (such as options or futures) on OKX to optimize your trading strategies?
Mercy: The simple coin earning product mentioned by teacher Alvin is indeed a good choice. It has the flexibility of depositing and withdrawing at any time, and the annualized return is relatively considerable. Some of my friends have obtained good returns after using this product. In addition, OK has other financial products, such as dual currency win, which are used by many friends with moderate funds and have obtained considerable returns. There are also strategies such as bottom-picking treasure and contract grid, which are effective tools to deal with market fluctuations and help everyone better manage investment risks.
Qin Xiaofeng: My current investment operations are divided into two parts: one is the financial management of stablecoins, such as shark fin products, which generally have higher returns than current financial management; the other is spot and contract trading. In particular, I prefer option trading, especially when the market is volatile, to obtain returns through short-term operations. It should be noted that options are very risky, especially when operating with large positions. It is recommended to try with small funds, otherwise you may face serious losses. Choosing the right exercise price and expiration time is the key, and you must not blindly chase high prices.
Shenyin-Alvin: Simple Coin Earning is suitable for users who pursue stable returns, while other leverage strategies tend to be speculative. I personally like to use the Martingale strategy, but I operate grid trading relatively cautiously. Ordinary users can try the interval grid strategy to avoid losses caused by emotional fluctuations. Although the hedging method of options is effective, the increased complexity may lead to operational errors, so I prefer band operations to maintain a clear direction. In the near future, I will reduce the frequency of transactions to prevent drastic market fluctuations.
Stitch: We mainly focus on structured financial products. The strategies of such products are preset, with low risk factors and great profit potential. By setting stop-profit and stop-loss, investment risks can be effectively controlled. Taking WLD as an example, setting a reasonable interval and time period can better achieve buying low and selling high. In addition, the use of strategic trading can overcome emotional decision-making and improve the stability of profits, which is especially suitable for investors who are more sensitive to market fluctuations.
Mercy: All financial products are like tools in a toolbox. Only when used properly can you create an ideal investment. Before using leverage and derivatives, it is recommended that you have a deep understanding of the principles and applicable scenarios of each product. Only by mastering these tools can you make wise decisions in a volatile market.
