Over the past week, BTC continued to rise, breaking through $96,000, $97,000, $98,000, and $99,000 ATH. The markets attention to BTC has returned to its peak, and it is eagerly looking forward to BTC breaking through $100,000. Not only did the BTC Google search index rise sharply, but Microstrategy also used its convertible bond over-allotment rights, and its MSTR due in 2029 closed at $104 on the first trading day.
On the 23rd, after BTC broke through the ATH of $99,588, the market was unable to rise and continued to fall to around $95,734. Although it rebounded to around $98,000, BTC entered a downward channel on the night of the 25th, reaching a minimum of $92,326.31, with a maximum drop of 6.5% in 24 hours. Currently, the BTC price fluctuates around $93,000 (the above data is from Binance spot, 17:00 on November 26).
Although BTC has experienced the biggest correction in nearly half a month, the crypto market did not react as violently as before. Not only did ETH not follow the decline, most altcoins did not enter a sharp decline, and some even had a slight increase. With Trumps upcoming inauguration, BTC investors profit-taking and complex leverage effects, the volatility of BTC in the future market may increase further.
BTC technical indicators have entered a short-term overbought phase, and some long-term holders are taking profits
Since Trumps victory, BTC technical indicators have shown a serious overbought state. Before this week, BTC was the only investment target in the Trump economy that had not yet taken profits. As the publics positive FOMO sentiment intensified, many long-term holders chose to cash in. Crypto Banter analyst Kyledoops pointed out that long-term BTC holders have sold 128,000 BTC, although the BTC ETF absorbed 90% of the selling pressure during the same period.
The market FOMO sentiment is too high, and the BTC price retracement may be beneficial to the future market development
Microstrategy exercised an over-allotment option of $400 million on $2.6 billion of convertible bonds (0% coupon, 55% premium), increasing the final size to $3 billion. The closing price of these convertible bonds due in 2029 exceeded $104 on the first trading day.
At the same time, the market quickly launched Microstrategys leveraged ETFs (MSTX, MSTU), allowing retail investors to have more suboptimal ways to leverage BTC spot. According to Bloomberg, the high demand for these leveraged ETFs has put pressure on prime brokers responsible for securities lending, and the related asset management scale has surged to nearly US$5 billion in the past week.
Public opinion is also continuously pushing up the popularity of BTC. Well-known TV commentators suddenly changed their tune to support cryptocurrencies and suggested that investors could hold BTC at high points. Market FOMO further exacerbated the recent market bubble, causing a significant increase in leverage at current levels and a sharp increase in realized volatility.
Macro Interpretation
US economic indicators are strong, and the possibility of a soft landing is increasing
Data shows that more than $448 billion has flowed into the U.S. stock market this year, breaking the record in 2021 and reaching an unprecedented level. At the same time, Nvidias financial report exceeded expectations and U.S. stocks remain strong. The economic index has rebounded to a strong first-quarter level, while inflation data has not yet broken upward. The high-income consumer index has hit a new high, and the consumption power of the U.S. (high-income) group remains strong. Judging from the data, the possibility of a soft landing of the U.S. economy has increased.
The conflict between Lebanon and Israel may be coming to an end, and safe-haven funds are withdrawing
The conflict between Lebanon and Israel is drawing to a close, and safe-haven funds are leaving the market. In addition to the cryptocurrency market, overnight commodity markets such as gold and crude oil also saw a sharp drop. As of the close of the night session on November 25, London gold spot, London silver spot, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver all fell by more than 3%.
CCTV News reported that on November 25, local time, Matthew Miller, a spokesman for the US State Department, said at a briefing on the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel that the ceasefire agreement has not yet been reached. The US believes that the gap between the negotiating parties on the ceasefire agreement has greatly narrowed, but some measures still need to be taken to promote its conclusion. The US is pushing the negotiations as far as possible.
On the 25th local time, Lebanons MTV TV station released an exclusive news report that Lebanon has received a ceasefire notice from Israel and will announce it tomorrow night. According to the Times of Israel, Israel has agreed in principle to reach a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon with the support of the United States.
Trumps tariff remarks caused a huge shock in the foreign exchange market
On the 25th local time, Trump announced that he would impose a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada entering the United States. As soon as the news came out, the currencies of Canada and Mexico fell by more than 1% against the US dollar, exacerbating the volatility of the foreign exchange market with a daily trading volume of up to 7.5 trillion US dollars. Emerging market currencies generally weakened. Commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar fell. Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific market were also under pressure and fell across the board.
Market Recommendations
The current market FOMO remains. In the case that the overbought state has not been significantly alleviated, investors are advised to remain rational, properly allocate assets while ensuring perfect risk control, and further avoid risks while capturing returns. At the same time, given that Trump has directly conveyed unfiltered ideas and policy intentions through social media in the past, the market will be full of speculation and contradictory trading ideas, and it is also very important to maintain flexibility in asset allocation.
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