Original author: a16z
Original translation: KarenZ, Foresight News
Editors Note: Based on the opinions of a16z partners in artificial intelligence, American Dynamism, Bio/Health, Crypto, Enterprise, Fintech, Gaming, Infrastructure, etc., a16z has released a comprehensive list of Big Ideas that technology builders may want to solve in the coming year. Here is an overview of some highlights that various partners in the a16z crypto field are excited about in the coming year. For the outlook on policy, regulation, etc. in 2025, please refer to this article published in November 2024.
TL;DR
An AI needs to have its own wallet to act autonomously;
Decentralized autonomous chatbots are coming;
As more people use AI, we will need unique identification;
From prediction markets…towards comprehensive information-efficient aggregation;
More and more businesses will accept stablecoin payments;
Countries are exploring putting government bonds on blockchain;
“DUNA” (Decentralized Nonprofit Unregistered Association) will be more widely used in the US blockchain network;
Online liquid democracy goes offline;
Builders will reuse infrastructure, not just reinvent it;
Crypto companies will start from the end user experience, rather than letting infrastructure determine the user experience;
“Hidden lines” will help usher in killer applications for Web3;
The crypto industry has its own app store and discovery capabilities;
Cryptocurrency owners become cryptocurrency users;
Industries may begin to tokenize “unconventional” assets.
An AI needs its own wallet to act autonomously
As AIs move from non-player characters (NPCs) to main players, they will begin to act as agents. However, until recently, AIs have not been able to truly act autonomously. And they still cannot participate in markets — exchanging value, expressing preferences, coordinating resources — in a verifiably autonomous way (i.e., without human control).
As we’ve seen, AI agents (like @truth_terminal) can transact using cryptocurrencies, which opens up all kinds of creative content opportunities. But there’s even more potential for AI agents to become even more useful — both helping humans achieve their intent and becoming independent network participants. When AI agent networks begin to custody their own crypto wallets, signing keys, and crypto assets, we’ll see some interesting new use cases emerge. These use cases include AI operating or validating nodes in DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network) — for example, assisting distributed energy projects. Other use cases include AI agents becoming real, high-value game players. We may even eventually see the first AI-owned and operated blockchain.
——Carra Wu
Decentralized autonomous chatbots are here
In addition to AI-owned wallets, there are also AI chatbots running Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs). TEEs provide an isolated environment in which applications can execute, allowing for the design of more secure distributed systems. But in this case, the TEE is used to prove that the bot is autonomous and not controlled by a human operator.
Expanding on this concept, the next big idea here is what we call decentralized autonomous chatbots, or DACs (not to be confused with decentralized autonomous organizations). Such a chatbot can build a following by posting engaging content, whether entertaining or informative. It will build a following on decentralized social media; generate income from its audience in a variety of ways; and manage its assets in cryptocurrency. The associated keys will be managed in the TEE running the chatbot software - meaning that no one except the software can access these keys.
As the venture evolves, regulatory “guardrails” may be needed. But the key point here is decentralization: running on a permissionless set of nodes and coordinated by a consensus protocol, chatbots may even become the first truly autonomous billion-dollar entities.
—Dan Boneh, Karma, Daejun Park and Daren Matsuoka
As more people use AI, we will need unique identification
In a world filled with fakes, scams, multiple identities, deepfakes, and other convincingly realistic AI-generated content, we desperately need a “proof of personhood” to help us confirm that we are interacting with real people. However, the new problem here is not the fake content itself, but the new ability to generate it at a very low cost. AI has greatly reduced the marginal cost of producing content that contains all the clues we need to judge whether something is “real”.
Therefore, now more than ever, methods to privately digitally associate content with individuals are needed. Proof of personhood is an important cornerstone of building digital identity. But here, it becomes a mechanism to increase the marginal cost of attacking an individual or compromising the integrity of the network: for humans, obtaining a unique identity is free, but for AI it is costly and difficult.
Because of this, the uniqueness property of privacy protection has become the next big idea in building a trusted network. It not only solves the problem of proving personality, but also fundamentally changes the cost structure for malicious actors to attack. Therefore, the uniqueness property - or anti-Sybil property - is an indispensable property of any personality proof system.
——Eddy Lazzarin
From prediction markets...to comprehensive information efficient aggregation
The 2024 US election brought prediction markets to the mainstream, but as an economist who studies market design, I don’t think it’s prediction markets themselves that will bring change in 2025. Instead, prediction markets lay the foundation for more technology-based distributed information aggregation mechanisms that can be applied to many fields, including community governance, sensor networks, and finance.
The past year has proven this concept, but it’s worth noting that prediction markets themselves are not always a good way to aggregate information: they can be unreliable even for global “macro” events; for more “micro” problems, the prediction pool can be too small to derive meaningful signals. However, researchers and technologists have had decades of design frameworks to incentivize people to (truthfully) share what they know in different information environments, from data pricing and purchasing mechanisms to “Bayesian truth serum” for deriving subjective assessments, many of which have been applied to crypto projects.
Blockchains have been a natural choice for implementing these mechanisms, not only because they are decentralized, but also because they facilitate open, auditable incentives. Importantly, blockchains also make the output public, so everyone can interpret the results in real time.
——Scott Duke Kominers
More and more businesses will accept stablecoins for payment
Stablecoins have found product-market fit over the past year — not surprising, since they are the cheapest way to send dollars and enable fast global payments. Stablecoins also provide a more accessible platform for entrepreneurs to build new payment products: no gatekeepers, minimum balances, or proprietary SDKs. However, large enterprises have yet to realize the huge cost savings and new profit margins they can gain by turning to these payment rails.
While we’re seeing some businesses showing interest in stablecoins (and early adoption in peer-to-peer payments), I expect to see a larger wave of experimentation in 2025. Small and medium-sized businesses with strong brands, built-in audiences, and high payment costs (e.g. restaurants, coffee shops, corner stores) will be the first to move away from credit cards. They don’t benefit from credit card fraud protection (given that it’s a face-to-face transaction), and they also suffer the most from transaction fees (30 cents per cup of coffee means a lot of lost profit!).
We should also expect large businesses to adopt stablecoins as well. If stablecoins do accelerate the banking industry’s history, then businesses will try to bypass payment providers and add the 2% profit directly to their bottom line. Businesses will also begin to seek new solutions to problems currently solved by credit card companies, such as fraud protection and identity verification.
——Sam Broner
Countries explore putting government bonds on blockchain
Putting government bonds on-chain would create a government-backed, interest-bearing digital asset without the surveillance concerns of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). These products could open up new sources of demand for collateral use in DeFi lending and derivatives protocols, adding more integrity and robustness to these ecosystems.
Therefore, as governments around the world that support innovation further explore the benefits and efficiencies of public, permissionless and irrevocable blockchains this year, some countries may try to issue government bonds on the blockchain. For example, the UK has explored digital securities through the sandbox mechanism of its financial regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA); its Treasury has also expressed interest in issuing digital gifts.
In the United States — with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) planning to require next year that Treasury bills be cleared through traditional, cumbersome and expensive infrastructure — expect more discussion about how blockchain can improve transparency, efficiency and participation in bond trading.
——Brian Quintenz
「DUNA」will be more widely used in the US blockchain network
In 2024, Wyoming passed a new law recognizing decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) as legal entities. A DUNA, or decentralized unincorporated nonprofit association, is designed specifically to enable decentralized governance of blockchain networks and is the only viable structure for projects in the United States. By incorporating a DUNA into a decentralized legal entity structure, crypto projects and other decentralized communities can give their DAOs legal legitimacy, thereby driving more economic activity while shielding token holders from liability and managing tax and compliance needs.
DAOs — communities that govern the affairs of open blockchain networks — are necessary tools to ensure that networks remain open, non-discriminatory, and unfairly extract value. DUNA has the potential to unlock the potential of DAOs, and there are already multiple projects working to implement it. As the US prepares to foster and accelerate progress in its crypto ecosystem in 2025, I expect DUNA to become the standard for US projects. We also expect other states to adopt similar structures (Wyoming has already led the way), especially as other decentralized applications outside of crypto flourish (such as physical infrastructure/energy grids).
—Miles Jennings
Online Liquid Democracy Goes Offline
As dissatisfaction with current governance and voting systems grows, there is an opportunity to experiment with new, technology-driven ways of governing — not just online, but in the real world. I’ve written before about how DAOs and other decentralized communities allow us to study political institutions, behaviors, and rapidly evolving governance experiments at scale. But what if we could apply these learnings to real-world governance through blockchain?
We could eventually use blockchain for secure, private voting in elections, starting with low-risk pilots to mitigate cybersecurity and auditing concerns. But importantly, blockchain will also enable us to experiment with “liquid democracy” at the local level — a way for people to vote directly on issues or delegate voting. This idea was first proposed by Lewis Carroll, author of Alice in Wonderland and a prolific researcher on voting systems; however, it has been impractical to apply at scale. Recent advances in computing, connectivity, and blockchains make new forms of representative democracy possible. Crypto projects are already applying the concept and generating a wealth of data on how these systems work. Local governments and communities can use our recent research as a reference.
——Andrew Hall
Builders will reuse infrastructure, not just reinvent it
Over the past year, many teams have continued to reinvent the wheel in the blockchain stack — with yet another custom set of validators, consensus protocol implementations, execution engines, programming languages, and RPC APIs. These efforts sometimes offer slight improvements in specific features, but often lack broader or baseline functionality. Take, for example, a specialized programming language for SNARKs: while an ideal implementation might allow developers to generate more performant SNARKs, in practice it may not fare as well as a general-purpose language in terms of compiler optimizations, developer tooling, online learning materials, AI programming support, and more (at least for now), and may even result in degraded SNARKs.
Therefore, I expect that in 2025, more teams will leverage the contributions of others and reuse more off-the-shelf blockchain infrastructure components - from consensus protocols and existing staked capital to proof systems. This approach will not only help Builders save a lot of time and energy, but also allow them to relentlessly focus on differentiating the value of their products/services.
Finally, the necessary infrastructure is in place to build high-quality Web3 products and services. As with other industries, these products and services will be created by teams that can successfully navigate complex supply chains, not by teams that turn their noses up at “not invented here.”
——Joachim Neu
Crypto companies will start from the end user experience, rather than letting infrastructure determine the user experience
While blockchain technology infrastructure is both interesting and diverse, many crypto companies are not choosing their infrastructure autonomously — in some ways, the infrastructure is choosing the UX (user experience) for them and their users. This is because specific technology choices at the infrastructure level are directly tied to the ultimate UX of a blockchain product or service.
But I believe the industry will overcome the ideological hurdle implicit here: that technology should dictate the ultimate UX. In 2025, more crypto product designers will start from the end user experience they want, and then choose the appropriate infrastructure from there. Crypto startups no longer need to obsess over specific infrastructure decisions before finding product-market fit — they can focus on actually finding product-market fit.
Instead of getting bogged down in specific EIPs, wallet providers, intent architectures, etc., we can abstract these choices into a holistic, full-stack, plug-and-play approach. The industry is ready for this: a rich programmable blockspace, increasingly mature developer tools, and chain abstraction are beginning to democratize crypto design. Most technical end users dont care what language the products they use every day are written in. The same thing will start to happen in crypto.
——Mason Hall
Hidden Circuits Help Usher in Web3 Killer Applications
Blockchain is unique because of its technological superpowers, but this has hindered mainstream acceptance so far. For creators and fans, blockchain opens up interconnectivity, ownership, and monetization... However, industry jargon (NFTs, zkRollups, etc.) and complex designs create barriers for those who can benefit most from these technologies. I have experienced this firsthand in countless conversations with media, music, and fashion executives interested in Web3.
Many consumer technologies have followed a similar path to widespread adoption: The technology itself began; then an iconic company or designer abstracted away the complexity; a move that helped spawn some breakthrough app. Think of the evolution of email, with the SMTP protocol hidden behind a “Send” button; or credit cards, which most users today use without giving much thought to the payment channel. Similarly, Spotify revolutionized the music industry not by showing off a file format, but by pushing playlists of songs to our fingertips. As Nassim Taleb says, “Over-engineering breeds brittleness; simplicity scales.”
Therefore, I think by 2025, our industry will have embraced this philosophy: “Hidden Wiring”. The best decentralized applications are already focusing on more intuitive interface design, so that it’s as easy as tapping a screen or swiping a card. By 2025, we’ll see more companies focusing on simple design and clear communication; successful products don’t need explanations, they solve problems directly.
——Chris Lyons
The crypto industry finally has its own app store and discovery
When crypto apps are blocked by centralized platforms like the App Store or Google Play, it limits top-of-funnel user acquisition. But now, we’re seeing new app stores and marketplaces that offer this distribution and discovery functionality without barriers to entry. For example, Worldcoin’s World App marketplace not only stores personal identification but also allows access to “mini-apps,” attracting hundreds of thousands of users to multiple apps in just a few days. Another example is the free decentralized app (dApp) store for Solana mobile users. Both examples show that hardware (e.g., phones, spheres), not just software, may be a key advantage for crypto app stores, just as Apple devices were in the early app ecosystem.
Meanwhile, there are other stores with thousands of dapps and Web3 development tools in popular blockchain ecosystems (e.g. Alchemy). Blockchain is also playing a dual role as publisher and distributor in games (e.g. Ronin). However, it’s not all fun and games: if a product already has existing distribution channels, such as through messaging apps, it becomes difficult to migrate it to the chain (exception: Telegram/TON network). The same is true for apps that have a large number of distribution channels in Web2. But we may see more of this migration in 2025.
——Maggie Hsu
Cryptocurrency owners become cryptocurrencies users
In 2024, the crypto space has seen significant developments on the political front, with key policymakers and politicians speaking positively about it. We also continue to see its growth as a financial movement (e.g., how Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products (ETPs) are expanding investor access). In 2025, crypto should further develop as a computing movement. But where will these new users come from?
I think now is the time to re-engage currently “passive” cryptocurrency holders and convert them into more active users, as only 5-10% of cryptocurrency holders are actively using cryptocurrency. We can convert the 617 million people who already hold on-chain cryptocurrency into more active users - especially as blockchain infrastructure continues to improve and transaction fees for users will decrease. This means that new applications will begin to emerge for existing and new users. At the same time, the early applications we have seen - in categories such as stablecoins, DeFi, NFTs, games, social, DePIN, DAOs, and prediction markets - are also starting to become more suitable for mainstream users as the community pays more attention to user experience and other improvements.
—Daren Matsuoka
Industries may begin tokenizing “unconventional” assets
As the crypto industry and other emerging technologies mature and infrastructure costs decrease, the practice of asset tokenization will spread across industries. This will enable assets that were previously inaccessible due to high costs or not being recognized as valuable to not only achieve liquidity but more importantly, participate in the global economy. AI engines can also consume this information as unique data sets.
Just as hydraulic fracturing unlocked oil reserves once thought untappable, tokenizing unconventional assets could redefine how revenue is generated in the digital age. As a result, seemingly sci-fi scenarios become more possible: for example, individuals could tokenize their biometric data and then lease that information to companies through smart contracts. We’ve already seen some early examples through companies like Decentralized Science (DeSci), which are using blockchain technology to bring more ownership, transparency, and consent to medical data collection. We don’t know yet how the future will play out, but these types of developments will allow people to tap into previously untapped assets in a decentralized way, rather than relying on governments and centralized intermediaries to provide them with those assets.
——Aaron Schnider
