In the past week, BTC has been on a roller coaster ride. Starting from December 5, it hit an ATH of $104,088 and stabilized at $100,000. Starting from December 6, BTC fell sharply and suddenly plunged. At 6 AM, BTC fell to $90,000. Then the price of BTC entered a correction phase and returned to $100,000 several times. In the early morning of the 10th, the price of BTC began to drop rapidly again, reaching a minimum of $94,800, with the largest drop of more than 13% during the week. The current price fluctuates around $97,000 (the above data comes from Binance spot, December 10 at 19:00). With the fluctuation of BTC prices, the upward trend of altcoins has also been weakened, and most cryptocurrencies have also fallen accordingly.
Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency markets total network contracts were liquidated for $1.574 billion, with a total of 511,000 people liquidated, of which long positions were liquidated for $1.388 billion and short positions were liquidated for $185 million.
Market Interpretation
US stock prices are approaching the level of the 2000 bubble economy, and the market is still optimistic about the upside potential of US stocks
As of yesterdays close of the U.S. stock market, the three major stock indexes closed down collectively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.54%, the SP 500 down 0.61%, and the Nasdaq down 0.62%. From a macro perspective, the market is watching the inflation report released this week, trying to find out the direction of the Feds subsequent policies. From the news perspective, Nvidias highest intraday drop was 4% due to the suspected anti-monopoly case filed by the State Administration for Market Regulation. Nvidias poor performance dragged down the overall technology stocks. At the same time, Chinese concept assets have seen a gratifying rise.
The market believes that with Trumps inauguration, the US dollar index may reach new highs. Strategists at Societe Generale said that Trumps reflationary policy may push the SP 500 index to 6,500 points in April next year. It closed at 6,052.85 points yesterday.
Institutions are bullish on BTC, and MicroStrategy continues to increase its holdings
On December 9, MicroStrategy announced that it had purchased another $2.1 billion worth of BTC, and held a total of more than $41 billion in BTC. The company has attracted much attention in the market for raising funds to purchase BTC by issuing stocks and fixed-income securities, and its stocks are among the top ten assets in terms of investment returns this year. MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor plans to raise $42 billion in the next three years to accelerate strategic transformation.
At the same time, analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein said, “We continue to firmly believe that $100,000 is not the final milestone for Bitcoin and expect Bitcoin to reach a cycle high of $200,000 in late 2025.”
Russian lawmakers propose creating a national BTC reserve to counter economic sanctions
According to Rhythm News, Russian MP Anton Tkachev proposed the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve, positioning it as a tool to combat economic sanctions and ensure financial stability. In a formal appeal to the Minister of Finance, Tkachev suggested the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve similar to traditional foreign exchange reserves. He believes that cryptocurrencies have unique advantages in mitigating risks associated with sanctions, inflation, and currency fluctuations.
The proposal fits in with the Russian central bank’s broader move to integrate digital assets into the international payment system.
Macro data analysis
Non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, but signs of weakness remain
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 in November, the largest increase since March 2024. Although the overall nonfarm payrolls data was slightly higher than expected, last months weak data (only 12,000) was barely revised upward, indicating that there are indeed some signs of weakness in the job market.
The number of first-time unemployment claims in the United States exceeded expectations, and the job market is gradually cooling down
The US Department of Labor data showed that the number of first-time unemployment claims in the US increased by 9,000 in the week ending November 30, climbing to 224,000, exceeding the expected 215,000. The slightly higher unemployment rate shows that the US job market is gradually cooling down, but it has not deteriorated significantly yet.
The annual rate of core inflation in the United States is about to be released, and the subsequent path of the Federal Reserve will be interpreted as the market direction
On the 13th, the annual rate of core inflation in the United States will be released. This data is key information for the market to interpret the Feds subsequent path. Based on the current non-farm data, the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates again in December. The market currently expects an 85% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December, while the chance of another cut in January is about 30%.
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