Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )
Author｜Nan Zhi ( @Assassin_Malvo )
Since Binance launched Binance Alpha on December 18, it has listed 38 tokens in total. In the first phase, most of the tokens listed were high-market-cap tokens, so the increase was not significant; while WHALES in the fifth phase rose sharply due to its very small market value. So how should we invest?
In this article, we will answer several questions through detailed data:
What is the short-term effect of listing coins?
What are the mid- to long-term effects of listing coins?
Do different chains have different patterns of rise and fall?
Is there a connection between the listing effect and market capitalization?
Data at a Glance
The 5-minute and 1-hour changes, as well as the cumulative changes since the launch of Binance Alpha Phase VI and 38 tokens are shown in the following table. All price data are from the 5-minute candlestick chart of TradingView; the market value is the circulating market value, which comes from CoinGecko.
In order to objectively compare whether the cumulative increase or decrease has outperformed the overall market, this article selected three tokens as reference objects, namely arc on Solana, VIRTUAL on Base, and BTC. (Odaily Note: PSTAKE failed to find a trading pair with sufficient liquidity, and the price fluctuation was very large, so it is omitted here.)
What is the short-term effect of listing coins?
From the table above, we can see that the 5-minute average rise and fall from the first to the sixth period are all positive numbers, which are 14%, 23%, 18%, 5%, 22% and 0% respectively. It can be seen that Binance Alpha also has a short-term listing effect, but it is definitely far behind Binance. For reference, the average 5-minute listing effect of Moonshot is about 30%, which is close to the level. (Recommended reading: CHILLGUY 12 times a day, but most people cant get the wealth created by Moonshot , Promoted Meme Weathervane, does Moonshot really have a listing effect? )
But further analysis shows that the short-term gains are mainly contributed by one or two relatively prominent tokens, and the gains of most tokens are negligible.
The figure below is a bar chart of the rise and fall in three time periods. It can be clearly seen that there are a few very prominent bars in the red part (5-minute increase), but most of the increases are very small.
What are the mid- to long-term effects of listing coins?
Taking the 1-hour closing price as a reference, it can be seen from the table that most tokens still maintained positive gains 1 hour after listing (the green column is above the 0 axis).
Considering users who are not buying fast enough, by comparing the one-hour closing price with the five-minute closing price (the green column is lower than the red column, indicating a relative decline), we can get the relative increase and decrease of the six periods as -10%, -7%, 3%, -3%, 4%, and 4%. This means that if you buy slowly, you will be trapped in the medium term.
How is the long-term performance? It can be clearly seen from the blue column in the figure that after the launch of Binance Alpha, the long-term growth of these tokens is significantly better than the short-term growth. For most users, it is more suitable to first investigate which high-quality projects are launched, and then pull back to buy the bottom and wait for long-term growth.
Is the long-term increase due to the overall upward trend of the crypto market, or is there indeed an impact from the platform? Through the three control groups of arc, VIRTUAL and BTC, we can see that when the first three batches were launched, the market was in a downward range, but the launched tokens still had positive growth. Therefore, overall, the launch of Binance ALpha is indeed a long-term positive for the token.
Do different chains follow different patterns in their rise and fall?
The data table and bar chart are shown below after sorting by chain. The differences between the chains are very obvious. Ethereum is clearly ahead in the 5-minute increase and decrease, while Base is the weakest. In terms of long-term increase, Solana is far ahead, and the other three chains are not much different.
The data of each token of the Solana chain are as follows. Overall, there is not much difference between the rise and fall in 5 minutes and 1 hour, and the long-term increase is far ahead. It may be the most suitable chain to participate in Binance Alpha.
The data of Ethereum is shown below. The difference between 5 minutes and 1 hour is much larger than that of Solana. The table shows that the average increase in 5 minutes is 24% and the average increase in 1 hour is 17%, but the cumulative increase since its launch is only 24%. Ethereum needs to pay a very high gas cost to grab a short-term favorable position, but the overall increase is not large, so the participation value is the smallest at present.
The BNB Chain data is shown in the figure below. The difference between the 5-minute and 1-hour increases and decreases has further widened, but it can be seen that the tokens with the best long-term gains (purple columns) are all tokens with small increases in 1 hour.
The base data is shown below. The main contributors to the increase are LUNA and ODOS. The sample size is small, so it is difficult to clarify the rules behind it.
Is there a connection between the listing effect and market capitalization?
In ascending order of market capitalization, the data for each period are shown in the figure below. It can be clearly seen that the tokens with the most obvious short-term gains are all small-cap tokens, but they also fell the most in 1 hour. The long-term gains have no obvious connection with the market capitalization.
