Author: Nancy, PANews
As the price of Bitcoin returns to a high of $100,000 and the share price of MSTR continues to rise, the markets divergence on the valuation of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is accelerating. On the one hand, many large global institutions are quietly increasing their holdings of MSTR stocks, viewing it as an important financial tool for indirectly allocating Bitcoin; on the other hand, its highly volatile and deeply leveraged asset structure has also attracted sniping from Wall Street shorts. As Strategy continues to increase its exposure to Bitcoin, it is evolving into a weather vane for Bitcoin price trends and a focus of capital leverage games.
The stock price outperformed the technology giants and was targeted by Wall Streets big short sellers
At the recent Sohn Investment Conference in New York, legendary Wall Street short seller and former hedge fund manager Jim Chanos said he was shorting Strategy and buying Bitcoin at the same time, calling it an arbitrage opportunity of buy at $1 and sell at $2.5.
He pointed out that Strategy holds more than 500,000 bitcoins through high leverage, and the current stock price has a high premium compared to the actual holdings. He criticized the emergence of a number of companies imitating Strategy in the market, selling the concept of buying bitcoins through corporate structures to retail investors and seeking high valuations, calling this logic absurd.
MicroStrategys stock price has risen more than 220% over the past year, while Bitcoin has only risen about 70%. Chanos believes that this transaction is a barometer for observing retail speculation.
Chanos is a well-known and influential investor on Wall Street. As the founder of Kynikos Associates, a hedge fund focusing on short-selling strategies, he is known for his in-depth fundamental analysis and his ability to keenly identify corporate financial fraud and business model defects. His classic short-selling cases include Enron, WorldCom and Luckin Coffee. However, in recent years, he has also suffered serious losses from shorting Tesla, and some funds have been closed or adjusted their strategies.
It is worth noting that this is not the first time that Strategy has become the target of a well-known short seller. In December last year, Citron Research, a well-known short-selling institution, announced that it had shorted Strategy. Although it was bullish on Bitcoin as a whole at the time, it believed that MSTR had seriously deviated from Bitcoins fundamentals. This news once caused MSTR to plummet in the short term, but due to the optimistic market sentiment driven by the rise of Bitcoin, and the increase in market visibility and liquidity brought by MSTRs inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index, this short selling ultimately failed.
In addition to external short-selling pressure, Strategy executives have also frequently reduced their holdings. It was disclosed that Jarrod M. Patten, who has served as a director of the company for more than 20 years, has sold a total of about $5.2 million in shares since April this year, and plans to continue to reduce his holdings by $300,000 this week.
Despite this, MSTRs recent stock price performance remains strong. According to MSTR-tracker data, Strategys total market value has reached US$109.82 billion, ranking 183rd in global asset market value. MSTR has risen by about 37.1% this year, not only outperforming Bitcoin, but also ahead of technology giants such as Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple and Amazon.
Q1 financial report shows huge loss of more than 4 billion US dollars, and more than 1,000 institutions have staked in the company
MSTR-tracker data shows that as of May 16, Strategy holds a total of 568,840 BTC, with a year-to-date Bitcoin investment return of 15.65%. According to the latest data, Bitcoin earnings per share (EPS) are expected to reach $37.82 this quarter.
However, in contrast to the impressive return on Bitcoin, Strategys financial performance in the latest quarter was under pressure due to the pullback in Bitcoin prices in the late first quarter of this year. The companys recently released first quarter 2025 financial report showed that revenue fell 3.6% year-on-year to $111.1 million, which fell short of market expectations, and a net loss of $4.23 billion (loss per share of $16.49), which was significantly higher than market expectations.
To ease financial pressure and further expand its Bitcoin asset exposure, Strategy is accelerating its capital operation strategy. Earlier this month, Strategy announced a new $21 billion public market common stock issuance plan, and has raised its BTC yield target from 15% to 25%, and its BTC dollar yield target from $10 billion to $15 billion. Immediately afterwards, Strategy further announced that it would launch a new 42/42 plan aimed at raising $84 billion in two years to purchase Bitcoin. In response, Wall Street analysts expressed support, and analysts at Benchmark and TD Cowen reiterated their buy ratings for the company, believing that its capital raising strategy is feasible.
Unlike most company stocks, which correspond to the market sales performance of the companys products, Strategys stock is positioned as a smart lever for Bitcoin. Its founder Saylor specifically told this narrative when the company was renamed Strategy. This forms a gap area of about 45% between traditional assets (such as SPDR SP 500 ETF and Invesco QQQ Trust, whose volatility levels are between 15-20) and Bitcoin (volatility levels are between 50-60). Strategys common stock targets volatility even higher than Bitcoin itself, aiming to achieve a volatility level of 80-90, while maintaining what Saylor calls smart leverage through a combination of equity issuance and convertible bonds.
Despite the airdrop attack, there are also many large institutional investors who have paid for Strategys strategy. The recent bets by institutional investors on Strategy have also boosted market confidence. According to Fintel data, to date, a total of 1,487 institutions hold Strategy shares, with a total holding of 139 million shares, with a current total value of approximately US$55.175 billion.
Citadel Advisors
Citadel Advisors is one of the worlds largest hedge funds. According to 13F filings, as of the first quarter of this year, Citadel Advisors held a total of MSTR shares worth more than $6.69 billion, or about 23.22 million shares, making it one of Strategys largest shareholders.
Vanguard Group
As of Q1 2025, Vanguard Group, one of the worlds largest mutual fund management companies, held approximately 20.58 million shares of MSTR, valued at over $5.93 billion.
Susquehanna International Group
Susquehanna International Group is a well-known global hedge fund company. As of the first quarter of 2025, the company held MSTR shares worth more than $5.73 billion, approximately 19.88 million shares.
Jane Street
13 F filings show that as of Q1 2025, Jane Street, one of the world’s top hedge funds, held over 16 million shares of MSTR, valued at nearly $4.63 billion.
Capital International
According to the 13 F filing submitted by Capital International in Q1 this year, the institution holds nearly 14.68 million shares of MSTR, worth approximately US$4.23 billion.
BlackRock
As of the first quarter of this year, BlackRock, one of the worlds largest asset management giants, held approximately 14.42 million shares of MSTR, worth more than US$4.15 billion.
CalPERS
CalPERS is the second largest public pension fund in the U.S., with more than $300 billion in assets under management. As of Q1 2025, CalPERS holds 357,000 shares of MSTR, valued at approximately $102 million.
