Last week (June 3-June 10), BTC rebounded after a 10% correction and $1.9 billion in derivatives liquidation, breaking through the $110,000 mark in the short term. On June 5, affected by the conflict between Trump and Musk, BTC once approached $106,000 under market panic, and the lowest price was $100,372, barely holding the $100,000 mark. Subsequently, boosted by the positive non-agricultural employment data, BTC rebounded to $110,530, with the largest increase of 10.12% during the week, and now stabilized around $109,450. Compared with BTC, ETH rebounded more, mainly driven by macroeconomic benefits and capital inflows. The current spot price of ETH is about $2,675 (Binance, June 10, 15:00).
Market Interpretation
BTC breaks through $110,000 in the short term, and the DeFi sector leads the market to rise
Last week, BTC fell below $101,000 due to the market panic caused by the conflict between Trump and Musk. ETH also pulled back simultaneously, and mainstream currencies were generally under pressure. With the non-agricultural data slightly exceeding expectations, risk appetite rebounded, BTC and ETH led the rise, and DeFi leaders such as SOL, AAVE, UNI, and MKR all rose by more than 13% in a single week. The total network contract liquidation was $436 million, with long liquidation accounting for 87%, and the total market value of cryptocurrencies rose to $3.56 trillion. The panic and greed index rose to 71, with obvious capital reflux and accelerated sector rotation.
The core driving force of the rise is that after the liquidation of high-leverage funds in the early stage, the selling pressure was released, liquidity was repaired, and the market structure was healthier; second, the SEC chairman released a positive signal on the DeFi exemption policy, and the policy was positive and investor sentiment was repaired. In the short term, the market outlook still focuses on the impact of macro data such as the US CPI this week on risk appetite.
US non-farm data slightly exceeded expectations, and short-term market sentiment is optimistic
The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 139,000 in May, which was the lowest in the past three months, but higher than the market expectation of 126,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. After the data was released, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose collectively, and the price of gold fell slightly.
Recently, the main line of US stock trading is still focused on the expectation of a soft landing of the economy and changes in Sino-US trade policies. The current employment and inflation data show that the economy is slowing down moderately and the unemployment rate is stable. The markets expectations for the Feds interest rate cut have been postponed. At the same time, the top leaders of the United States and China have resumed consultations on the issue of reciprocal tariffs. Although there has been no substantial progress in the negotiations, the market is cautiously optimistic about the policy easing.
Overall, the non-farm payroll data was slightly better than expected, providing some support for the U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar. Risk appetite rebounded temporarily, but geopolitical and policy uncertainties still exist.
Trump and Musks public clash affects global markets
Last Thursday (June 5), Trump and Musk clashed over the Beautiful Bill, which cancelled the electric vehicle tax credit and carbon credit policy, severely impacting Teslas profits. As a result, Teslas stock price plummeted by more than 14% on June 6, and its market value evaporated by about $150 billion. The three major U.S. stock indexes also fell across the board, with the Dow Jones, SP 500, and Nasdaq falling by 0.25%, 0.53%, and 0.83%, respectively.
The three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively on the same day, and the crypto market fluctuated violently, with BTC dropping to $100,372 and ETH falling by more than 7%. In addition to the Special Horse event itself, this round of market adjustment was also superimposed with multiple pressures such as profit-taking after the previous surge, the postponement of the Feds interest rate cut expectations, and seasonal liquidity slump.
ETH ETF funds return, financial innovation becomes the main line
ETH ETF has a net inflow of $815 million in the past 20 days, achieving a cumulative net inflow of $658 million for the first time since the beginning of the year, and the trend of capital repatriation is clear. ETH rebounded more than BTC, benefiting from the accelerated implementation of key applications such as stablecoins and asset tokenization. Payment giants such as Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe are actively deploying ETH stablecoins, and crypto platforms such as Coinbase and Robinhood are strengthening financial innovation scenarios. The ETH market structure is gradually shifting from speculation-driven to application-driven.
More information
South Koreas new president promotes the institutionalization of stablecoins and ETFs, driving regional capital repatriation
After Lee Jae-myung was elected President of South Korea, the ruling party quickly proposed the Basic Law on Digital Assets, relaxed the threshold for local companies to issue stablecoins, and promoted the legalization of virtual asset ETFs. The institutionalization process of the Korean crypto market has accelerated, the market trading heat has continued to rise, and favorable policies have promoted the return of funds to local assets in the Korean won.
The total size of crypto funds hit a new high, and the trend of asset allocation diversification strengthened
In May, the global crypto fund asset management scale reached $167 billion, with a monthly net inflow of $7.05 billion, and funds are flowing into the crypto market at an accelerated pace. Data shows that BlackRock Spot BTC ETF (IBIT) exceeded $70 billion in assets in 341 trading days, and IBIT holds 2.8% of the global BTC total supply.
In contrast, global stock funds had a net outflow of $5.9 billion, and gold funds had their first net outflow in 15 months. Crypto assets have gradually become a regular configuration in investment portfolios, and structural changes in the market have emerged.
Crypto treasury model is gaining popularity, with leverage and stampede risks attracting attention
Currently, more than 120 listed companies have included BTC in their treasury, and MicroStrategy holds 580,000 BTC with a market value of over $61 billion. Analysts believe that if BTC falls below $90,000, about half of the companies holding the currency will face the risk of losses, and passive selling may trigger a chain stampede. Grayscale GBTC premium turning point and related explosion cases sounded the alarm for the current encrypted treasury model, and the industry needs to be vigilant against excessive leverage and liquidity risks.
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