Original author: Murphy, on-chain data analyst (X: @Murphychen888 )
You may subconsciously think that only paid data is valuable, but in fact, a lot of free data is also very useful. For example, Binance will release relevant data after each LaunchPool event. These data contain market sentiment, capital movements, and traces of the game between large and retail investors.
We all know that Binance has the best on-site liquidity at present, and has gathered a large number of users and funds. Although we cannot directly access the relevant background data, we can still observe some clues from the limited public data.
(Figure 1)
Figure 1 shows the relevant data of all LaunchPools from August 2024 to the present. In 2024, only FDUSD and BNB could participate in LaunchPool, and in 2025, USDC was newly added, so we can divide the data into two parts for comparison.
From the 64th RED to the 66th GUN, the number of participants in each period is basically stable, but the locked amount of FDUSD and USDC is higher than the previous period. Since there is no handling fee for swapping stablecoins on Binance, in theory, all idle stablecoins will have the willingness to take advantage of it, including USDT. The more stablecoins involved, the more idle purchasing power there is in the Binance exchange.
At the same time, we also noticed that the scale of FDUSD+USDC in the three phases of activities in 2025 was roughly around 3 billion to 4 billion US dollars, while the amount of FDUSD in the activities from August to December 2024 was roughly around 1.5 billion to 2 billion US dollars, that is, the scale of funds in Q1 of 2025 was much larger than that in 2024. You may think that this is due to the addition of USDC in 2025, but I may have a different understanding.
(Figure 2)
We can observe a detail: As shown in Figure 2, when each LaunchPool was opened in 24 years, the premium of FDUSD was very high. This shows that there is a large demand for FDUSD at this time. For example, all USDT and USDC holders will exchange for FDUSD to participate in mining at this moment, thus pushing up the exchange rate of FDUSD in a short period of time.
When the 25-year activity started, the premium of FDUSD began to decline, indicating that the demand for FDUSD was not as high as before. The fundamental reason is that USDC diverted the original demand for FDUSD. Investors holding USDC do not need to exchange for FDUSD, and some investors holding USDT have also exchanged for USDC (because after the mining is completed, USDC is more valuable than FDUSD).
In other words, most of the idle funds will participate in LaunchPool. The FDUSD+USDC participated in 2025 and the FDUSD participated in 2024 should be regarded as the vast majority of idle funds deposited within the exchange. It is not entirely because Binance opened a new USDC participation channel in 2025 that led to a significant increase in funding data.
In addition, the “per capita locked amount” in Q1 of 2025 is also higher than that in November-December of 2024, which means that it has entered the stage dominated by large users. That is, the user group with idle purchasing power has become more “large users”.
This seems to illustrate a reality. In November and December 2024, more large investors mainly held coins, while in February and March 2025, large investors mainly held U. So far, the market has completed a round of wealth conversion, and large investors have also completed the siege of retail investors. They hold a large amount of idle funds and are patiently waiting for the next opportunity.
Based on the above observations, we can draw several conclusions:
1. Compared with 24 years ago, the idle funds in the market have not only not decreased, but have even increased; but the overall sentiment is cautious and has not formed effective purchasing power.
2. The number of people participating in LaunchPool has increased, indicating that more people have cashed out, but the funds are still in the market and are unwilling to leave, which means that although they are cautious emotionally, they are far from completely desperate.
3. The increase in the amount of locked positions per capita indicates that the idle purchasing power is controlled by more large investors; after a round of wealth redistribution, the purchasing power has returned to the hands of large investors. And they generally believe that the bull market has not ended, so they are still waiting for the opportunity in the market.
