Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )
Author | Ethan ( @ethanzhang_web3 )
“After 3 months, BTC has once again reached $100,000!”
Last night, Bitcoin once again broke through the 100,000 mark, reaching as high as $104,000, with a 24-hour increase of 7.41%, a new high since nearly three months. Other mainstream altcoins also rose sharply. According to Quantify Crypto data, most of the top 100 currencies by market value are rising, and mainstream altcoins have risen significantly. ETH broke through $2,200, with a 24-hour increase of 20.%; SOL broke through $160, with a 24-hour increase of 8.9%; DOGE broke through $0.19, with a 24-hour increase of 11.38%.
Interestingly, the ETH/BTH exchange rate also hit a one-month high, reaching 0.0218, with a daily increase of 13%.
Why has ETH become the leader of this round of rise? On the one hand, the Pectra upgrade has enhanced Ethereums Layer 2 ecosystem, reduced transaction costs, and improved data availability through a number of improvements, such as increasing Block throughput, optimizing EVM object format, and promoting account abstraction. This will attract more developers and users, provide a potential catalyst for ETH price breakthroughs, and may have a positive impact on ETHs valuation in the long run (recommended reading: Interpreting Ethereum Pectra: The Next Major Upgrade ).
On the other hand, ETF staking is expected to pass. Early June is the approval window for Ethereum spot staking function. If the staking service is approved, it can bring additional benefits to investors or attract more attention to Ethereum ETF. Combined with the positive impact of Pectras upgrade, the market is cautiously optimistic about the development of the Ethereum ecosystem. Related technological progress and regulatory trends have become the focus of the markets observation of the Ethereum ecosystem next month.
Affected by the overall upward trend, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has also risen rapidly. According to CoinGecko data, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has exceeded 3.3 trillion US dollars, with a 24-hour increase of 5.26%. Cryptocurrency users trading enthusiasm has surged, and Alternatives Fear and Greed Index reported 73 today, with the level turning from extreme fear last month to greed.
In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network has liquidated $956 million, mainly short orders, with an amount of $819 million. In terms of currencies, BTC liquidated $394 million and ETH liquidated $311 million.
Bullish catalyst: Tariff suspension?
This rise may be related to the good news about the tariff war.
On May 7, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9 to 12 and hold talks with the United States. This news was interpreted by the market as a clear signal from both China and the United States to suspend tariff escalation, boosting market risk appetite. Historical data shows that during the Sino-US trade negotiation window in January 2024, Bitcoin rose 22% in a single month due to improved expectations for cross-border capital flows.
In addition, although the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% on May 8 , in line with market expectations, traders continue to believe that the Fed will cut interest rates before July and still expect three rate cuts this year. Futures contracts linked to the Feds policy rate recovered earlier losses after the interest rate decision was announced, and the current pricing of the Feds probability of a 25 basis point rate cut as early as June is 30%, slightly higher than the earlier 27%. According to futures prices, the probability of a rate cut by July is about 75%.
In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also released certain dovish signals, saying that in some cases it is appropriate to cut interest rates this year, and in some cases it is inappropriate to cut interest rates. I cannot confidently say that I know the appropriate interest rate path.
What will be the future trend of encryption?
It took Bitcoin three months to break through $100,000 again, and altcoins are also dancing. The sharp rise may be due to tariff negotiations, favorable policies and institutional intervention, but is the bull market really here, or is it the last carnival? Are there other variable factors? Below, Odaily Planet Daily will sort out the views and arguments of institutions on the future market.
CZ: The option to buy Bitcoin before the government is disappearing
Binance founder CZ cited the news that Arizona has officially legislated the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act on the X platform, and said: Investors can buy when the government starts buying or after the government buys, and the option of before the government buys is gradually disappearing.
BitMart: Currently dominated by uncertainty, the market is reshaping the positioning of Bitcoin
Since the introduction of the tariff policy, global economic uncertainty has increased, causing gold prices to soar to $3,500 per ounce, a record high. At the same time, the U.S. stock, U.S. bond and foreign exchange markets have fallen sharply, and investors have been looking for safe-haven assets. In this context, whether Bitcoin can serve as a substitute for gold has become the focus of market attention. As the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen significantly, reaching its highest level in two years, it shows that investors have begun to regard Bitcoin as a potential safe-haven asset amid increasing macroeconomic uncertainty. However, although Bitcoin has shown similar safe-haven characteristics to gold in some cases, its high volatility and market sentiment-driven characteristics still make it more similar to risky assets such as technology stocks. Therefore, the market is currently at a critical positioning stage: whether Bitcoin is a safe-haven asset like gold or a risky asset like technology stocks, this positioning depends not only on Bitcoins correlation with gold, but also on its market sentiment-driven characteristics, volatility, and investors confidence in it as a safe-haven tool. In the future, as the market has a deeper understanding of Bitcoins characteristics, its role in the portfolio may become clearer.
Alvin Liew: Beware of the risk of delayed rate cuts
UOB economist Alvin Liew said the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts due to tariff risks. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said central bank officials are in no rush to adjust interest rates because the cost of waiting is quite low, the economist said. With the Fed still signaling patience even as it intensifies its warnings about the risks of rising inflation and unemployment from US tariffs, UOB continues to see three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2025. UOB is pushing back its expected timeline to meetings in September, October and December, the economist said. UOB still sees two rate cuts in 2026, which would mean the federal funds rate would fall to 3.25% next year.
summary
After three months, Bitcoin finally reached the $100,000 mark again. This is not just a price recovery, but more like a resurgence of market confidence.
At the moment when the signal of easing between China and the United States was released, institutions had already quietly increased their positions, retail investors were still waiting and watching, but BTC had already taken the lead. Not only BTC, but also a number of altcoins such as ETH, SOL, DOGE, etc. also danced, as if the entire market was in a collective carnival. What really drove this wave of rise was the result of the triple superposition of favorable policies, institutional fixed investment, and risk aversion. But is the bull market really back? Or is this just a short climax ignited by emotions? The next step, the rhythm of interest rate cuts, geopolitics, market positioning... Every variable is affecting the direction of this game. Odaily Planet Daily reminds investors to reasonably control position risks and use leveraged derivatives with caution.
