In the past week, the price of BTC has been consolidating between $82,000 and $83,000. On the 12th, the price of BTC opened at $82,932,99 and closed at $84,010.03 on the 14th, with a maximum fluctuation of 6.71% during the week. Affected by geopolitical factors, the current price of BTC is hovering around $83,000, which is a slight rebound compared with last week, but the price of BTC has formed a strong resistance between $84,000 and $85,000, limiting the room for growth. Last week, ETH was in a sideways adjustment phase like BTC. The current price is hovering around $1890 and has been supported many times, with a maximum fluctuation of 7.58% during the week (the above data is from Binance spot, real-time data at 15:00 on March 18).
The US stock market has had a chance to catch its breath due to the performance of the newly released CPI data and the 30-day truce agreement signed between Russia and Ukraine. As of the close of the market on the 17th, the three major US stock indexes all rebounded slightly. Among them, after the SP 500 fell into the adjustment zone on the 13th (the maximum decline exceeded 10%), the market still had buying, and large technology stocks performed better than the market. The US dollar weakened significantly, and the euro rose 0.4% against the US dollar.
Market Analysis
The US stock market rebounded weakly and volatility intensified, and gold fixed income assets became the main beneficiary
Last week, global asset markets experienced sharp fluctuations and market sentiment was depressed, but technical indicators showed extreme oversold conditions, leading to a rebound of more than 2% in US stocks on March 13 and 14. The main supporting factors include the elimination of the risk of a US government shutdown, no new tariffs or geopolitical risks, and the correction of the oversold state of US stocks. However, trading volume is still low, and the rebound momentum is limited.
According to Bloomberg, the SP 500 (SPX) index fell more than 10% in 16 days, indicating that the market is adjusting faster. JPMorgan Chase pointed out that the current adjustment is 9.5%, which is relatively small, and the implied probability of economic recession is 33%. However, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for US GDP growth in 2025 to 1.7%, indicating that the economic outlook is still under pressure, and some hedge funds have recently retreated.
On the other hand, gold and fixed-income assets have become the main beneficiaries of market uncertainty. The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is cold. According to eMerge Engine data, ETH continues to be weak, with a drop of nearly 48% since the beginning of the year. Overall, the market is still facing uncertainty, especially the divergence of expectations for future economic growth and policy trends. Investors need to pay attention to macroeconomic data and policy changes and remain cautious. Market volatility may continue.
Gold breaks through historical highs, BTC may usher in short-term consolidation
On March 15, COMEX gold broke through $3,000 for the first time, setting a record high of $3004.86. UBS Research predicts that the high point of gold will exceed $3,200/ounce in 2025. The reason is that the continued risk aversion in the market, macroeconomic uncertainty, the worsening of the US fiscal deficit and international geopolitical risks will continue to support the upward trend of gold prices.
At the same time, the 2-year US Treasury yield rose by 0.7%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 0.37%, indicating that some funds have begun to withdraw from US Treasury bonds and start to buy the bottom of the stock market. The US stock market has entered a correction phase. BTC is subject to the adjustment of the US stock market and the breakthrough of gold at a key psychological level, and may enter a short-term consolidation.
Stablecoin inflows decrease, and market rebound momentum is insufficient
According to data from eMerge Engine on March 17, the scale of dual-channel supply inflows has been significantly reduced, with a total inflow of $237 million, specifically $842 million outflow from BTC Spot ETF, $184 million outflow from ETH Spot ETF, and $1.264 billion in inflow from stablecoins.
Despite the decrease in stablecoin inflows and the increase in ETF outflows, the inflow of existing funds has caused the BTC price to rebound to $83,000. However, this rebound was mainly driven by a small amount of funds buying at the bottom, and the current capital flow is not enough to become the main force for the market reversal.
US Senate passes stablecoin regulation bill: algorithmic stablecoin faces two-year ban
On March 13, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee passed the Stablecoin Regulation Act, which brought a milestone regulatory framework to the crypto market. The market is generally optimistic about the compliance prospects of mainstream stablecoins such as USDT and USDC. However, the bill establishes a two-year ban on stablecoins that rely solely on self-created digital assets as collateral (such as algorithmic stablecoins) and requires the Treasury Department to study their risks.
The ban has sparked widespread concern about the future development of algorithmic stablecoins. The ban is mainly aimed at preventing systemic risks, improving market transparency and protecting investors, but it also leaves room for hybrid model projects to adjust. The results of the Ministry of Finances research will determine whether these projects can continue to develop, which has increased market uncertainty.
Macro dynamics
US CPI slightly lower than expected in February, consumer confidence declines
On March 12, the United States released the latest CPI data. The unadjusted CPI in February rose by 2.8% year-on-year, slightly lower than the expected 2.9%. This represents a slowdown in inflation, easing the market panic caused by last weeks employment data, and market sentiment turned moderate.
However, the preliminary data of the Consumer Confidence Index released by the University of Michigan on March 14 showed the opposite trend. The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 57.9, far below the market expectation of 63.1 and a significant drop from the previous value of 64.7. At the same time, the initial value of the one-year inflation rate expectation rose to 4.9%, exceeding the expected 4.2% and up from the previous value of 4.3%. This shows that due to the uncertainty brought about by the Trump administrations tariff policy, American consumers concerns about the economic outlook have intensified, and market sentiment is under pressure.
EU retaliatory tariffs could trigger BTC pullback
On March 12, the European Commission announced that it would impose retaliatory tariffs on €26 billion ($28 billion) worth of U.S. goods starting in April in response to the U.S.s 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum. The EUs latest retaliatory tariffs have heightened macroeconomic uncertainty and could lead to increased BTC price volatility. This move could spark new trade war concerns and market volatility in the short term.
Analyst Shao Hua believes that “the introduction of counter-tariffs is not a positive signal and may cause the BTC price to pull back from $83,855 to the key support level of $75,000. The short-term pullback to below $72,000 in the current bull market cycle can be regarded as a “macro adjustment”, after which BTC still has the potential to continue to rise.”
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