Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )
Author | Dingdang ( @XiaMiPP )
After a 7-month consolidation period, ETH finally regained $3,000 today.
In this battle around ETH, there is a firm and high-profile voice. From publicly calling out the expired weighted positions, he almost single-handedly carried the banner of ETH bulls in the Chinese-speaking world. He is Yi Lihua, the founder of the secondary fund Trend Research, also known as E Lihua by crypto investors. Today, he finally ushered in his own highlight moment - holding 182,000 ETH, the floating profit has exceeded 130 million US dollars but not a single coin has been sold.
Why did he dare to publicly call for more and continue to increase his position when ETH was $1,450? And why did he resolutely stay away from casino-style trading after losing $2 million in options tuition fees?
From the craze of no-brain betting in 2017, to the heavy blow of the bear market in 2018, to the dividends of the bull market in 2020, Yi Lihua deeply realized that trend recognition is far better than short-term skills, and less trouble in the bull market is the best way. This interview is not only a perspective on the holdings and strategy review of a top player, but also a trend investment declaration and bull market survival guide based on actual experience and penetrating the fog of the market. The logic he verified with real money is worth reading and thinking about for every investor in the crypto wave.
1. Personal experience: Trend recognition and cycle judgment are far better than short-term skills
Odaily Planet Daily: First of all, please briefly introduce your professional background. What was the opportunity that led you to enter the crypto industry?
Yi Lihua: I used to be engaged in equity investment. In 2015, I came into contact with encryption projects during the investment process. After gradually gaining a deeper understanding, I officially entered this industry by participating in Bitcoin mining.
Odaily Planet Daily: How have your investment concepts changed during your career in crypto? Is there any particularly important experience that has had a profound impact on your current strategy and judgment?
Yi Lihua: First of all, in 2017, there was almost no logic in investing at that time. I invested as long as I got the quota in the primary market, and simply bought BTC and ETH in the secondary market. This led to my heavy losses in the 2018-2019 bear market. The big bull market in 2020-2021 made the mindless bets reap dividends. These two rounds of cyclical changes have made us deeply aware that trend recognition and cycle judgment are far more important than short-term skills .
At the same time, it also made one thing clear: under the long-term upward trend of Bitcoin, building an investment logic centered on the trend is the key to crossing the cycle. Most OGs only truly established the underlying investment framework after repeated trial and error.
2. Ethereum Ecosystem and Core Position Logic
Odaily Planet Daily: We know that you have been very optimistic about Ethereum (ETH) recently. Now that ETH has returned to $3,000, how do you feel now?
Yi Lihua: Everything is as expected. If it weren’t for the interference of Middle East geopolitics, ETH would have reached $3,000 long ago.
Odaily Planet Daily: Can you disclose your current ETH holdings? What is the cost? Do you have a specific profit-taking range and plan?
Yi Lihua: The data on the chain is basically transparent. We have not sold anything at present. We believe that the bull market has just begun. As long as the trend is still there, we will continue to hold. Only when we judge that the bull market is over will we consider selling.
Odaily Note: According to the monitoring of on-chain analyst Ember (@EmberCN), as the price of Ethereum (ETH) reaches the $3,000 mark, the floating profit of ETH held by Trend Research has reached $130 million. Data shows that the cumulative number of ETH purchased and held by Trend Research is 182,000, with an average price of about $2,250.
Odaily Planet Daily: Because you have been calling for more ETH, we saw someone on Twitter teasing you as E Lihua. What do you think of such a name? Do you mind? Do you have any response?
Yi Lihua: The reason why we publicly called for long positions is that when ETH was at $1,450, we thought it was a historic opportunity, and of course we wanted to share it with everyone. In addition, we are indeed constantly buying, and our actions are consistent with our words.
The name E Lihua also shows that everyone is paying attention to ETH. Whether it is teasing or questioning, it is just after-dinner talk, I don’t mind. I have also let go of those who wrote negative articles about me. The bull market is coming, and the most important thing is that everyone wins together.
Odaily Planet Daily: In June, you publicly held nearly 100,000 ETH month-end call options on the X platform, with a premium of 2 million US dollars. But the market conditions that month were not satisfactory. What do you think of this investment? Do you have any reflections or subsequent strategy adjustments?
Yi Lihua: It was indeed a wrong operation that deserves reflection. We were too eager to bet on ETH to reach $3,000 and ignored the black swan risk. The market situation was particularly good at the time, and our book profit was also OK, so we wanted to make another bet, but the Middle East war disrupted the rhythm. This also reminds us again: It is difficult for any professional team to win money in the casino for a long time.
Therefore, we have also strengthened our belief in trend investing and avoided participating in such extremely high-risk behaviors. This is what I want to express. In fact, both primary investment and option trading belong to uncertain risk behaviors. Only trend investing is the fair path that we believe can lead to the end.
Odaily Planet Daily: In addition to firmly holding ETH, you have also repeatedly expressed optimism about Ethereum ecological projects such as UNI and AAVE. Have you made any position allocations? What is the approximate proportion?
Yi Lihua: We are optimistic about the overall ETH ecosystem. As the leaders, UNI and AAVE are naturally allocated, which currently account for about 20% of the overall position. We hope that the ecological leaders can outperform ETH, and we will make timely adjustments in the future depending on market performance and timing.
Odaily Planet Daily: Are you optimistic about these altcoins based on the logic of the linkage with ETHs rise, or do you value their own cash flow and value capture capabilities? In addition, emerging non-ETH platforms such as Hyperliquid have also performed well recently. What do you think? Would you consider investing?
Yi Lihua: The main reason for the ecological linkage configuration is based on the trend judgment of ETH. In the face of the trend, any analysis is meaningless. We tend to only buy the leaders, even the leaders in the Meme track. So we make project investment decisions based entirely on the long-term optimism of ETH. When ETH returns to $3,000, the industry bull market will return, and all high-quality projects will rise, but our energy is limited and we cant cover everything.
III. Positioning and strategy of LD Capital and Trend Research
Odaily Planet Daily: As we all know, you are the founder of LD Capital, but in the past year we have seen that you have focused more on the construction of Trend Research. What is the difference between the two in terms of operation and positioning? What is the meaning and vision behind the name of the brand Trend Research?
Yi Lihua: LD Capital is a long-established investment institution focusing on the primary market of cryptocurrencies. It has invested in more than 200 projects in the past 8 years, mainly focusing on team support, ecosystem incubation and early strategic investment.
Trend Research is an investment fund focused on the secondary market. Due to different positioning, team differences and fund structures, it has become a relatively independent brand name and development goal. The reason why it is named Trend is that I always believe that trend investment is the most replicable and fair long-term path. In fact, Buffett and Duan Yongping are also typical representatives of trend investment. We hope to build Trend Research into a sustainable, cross-cycle evergreen fund, and continue this concept in the cryptocurrency circle and even the stock market. We will continue to improve our investment research capabilities and investment strategies.
Odaily Planet Daily: Does Trend Research come from its own funds or with the participation of external investors? Is it convenient to disclose the current amount of funds under management?
Yi Lihua: Basically, it is the teams own funds. Currently, everything on the chain is relatively transparent. At the same time, we also hope to continuously expand the team and scale under appropriate circumstances. We think that establishing the underlying logic of investment is the most important thing. The team partners have more than 10 years of experience in crypto investment and trading, so we look forward to steady growth step by step.
Odaily Planet Daily: In terms of specific strategies, does Trend Research prefer long-term value investment or short-term trend grasp? In which markets are the current capital focus mainly?
Yi Lihua: We mainly invest in trend-driven value, and our short-term strategy is only to make small-scale adjustments or choose opportunities for gambling. As you can see, we have been continuously buying positions without any selling behavior. We may reduce the loan leverage at a certain time (the risk is extremely low).
Our current focus is still on the crypto industry, and in the future it will be further expanded to categories such as stocks. We are currently studying opportunities in the coin-stock track, and whether we will expand in the future will depend on the match between the teams capabilities and market opportunities.
Odaily Planet Daily: There is a general lack of takeover orders for new projects listed this year, and the price performance is not as expected. How did the primary projects previously invested by LD Capital perform? Did it prompt you to re-examine the layout logic of the primary market? Will you continue to participate in primary projects in the future?
Yi Lihua: Indeed, like most institutions, we have also been under great pressure in the primary market. Most projects have performed very poorly, which is also a direct motivation for us to turn to secondary investment. However, we have our own funds and others are LPs, but I don’t know whether to say it is a blessing or a curse.
Frankly speaking, we have not found a clear underlying logic for large-scale primary investments. Because primary investment is a high-risk behavior, we do not have any means to constrain the project parties, and Asian funds are completely at a disadvantage in terms of pricing power and exit liquidity. This makes us very cautious about primary investment now. However, if the founder is someone we are particularly familiar with and optimistic about, we will continue to make additional investments in the primary and a half. Recently, we have also started to invest in coin-share companies, and at the same time help high-quality primary projects to accelerate services. This is our current strategy.
4. AI Narrative, Macro and Market Structure
Odaily Planet Daily: You mentioned that the amount of money Wall Street has invested in cryptocurrencies is not inferior to that of AI narratives, and you also pointed out that there is a bubble in AI. Do you mean the bubble in the crypto field or in the broader technology track? What do you think of the AI Agent track in the crypto field?
Yi Lihua: AI is the main engine of the current bull market in the US stock market, but whether it can support trillions of market value in the long term is still debatable. I think there is nothing wrong with AI itself, and it is one of the most important development directions for mankind in the future.
In the field of encryption, AI+Crypto projects have not seen real breakthroughs yet. We look forward to the emergence of projects with real technological innovation and application in the future, but it is still in the early stages.
Odaily Planet Daily: What do you think of the capital siphoning effect of Bitcoins excess consensus? Is it difficult for altcoins to obtain capital rotation? Does the traditional altcoin season still exist?
Yi Lihua: Bitcoin is currently the core asset of the institutional bull market. BlackRock, MicroStrategy, etc. only buy BTC, so the consensus continues to strengthen. However, altcoins generally face problems of weak narrative and oversupply, which makes it difficult to realize their value.
In the future, only a few altcoins that truly have technical or value support will have the opportunity to rotate. Just like the US stock market, most zombie stocks have no liquidity and pricing power.
Odaily Planet Daily: Recently, the tokenization of securities has been very popular. Major exchanges such as Bybit and Kraken are all involved in the blue-chip US stock token trading business. What do you think of the market prospects of the tokenization of securities? Will it further compress the liquidity and market trading space of altcoins?
Yi Lihua: I think this is a positive. Most Web3 users only trade leading and star stocks, and are unlikely to be interested in other categories. Traditional stock investors may enter a new market through tokenization channels. This is an incremental, not a zero-sum, move for the crypto market.
Odaily Planet Daily: With the key progress of the GENUIS Act, stablecoin regulation seems to have made a substantial breakthrough. Do you think this policy progress will really bring incremental funds? Will it affect short-term market fluctuations or long-term institutional structural layout?
Yi Lihua: Of course, favorable crypto policies are an important factor in this bull market. Without friendly crypto policies, massive amounts of traditional capital cannot enter the crypto industry smoothly and compliantly. This will bring a large amount of funds and a long-term bull market foundation, which is also the core reason why we are optimistic about this bull market.
Odaily Planet Daily: Many people believe that the crypto industry is shifting from a technological dividend period to a regulatory dividend period or even a compliance arbitrage period. Do you agree with this judgment? Will institutional players gradually replace retail investors as the main pricing force?
Yi Lihua: This is an inevitable trend. Just like the US stock market, the pricing power will eventually return to institutions. The only choice for retail investors is to follow Wall Street and big institutions and not trade against the trend. After institutions enter the market, there will be higher certainty.
5. Trend Judgment and Investment Advice
Odaily Planet Daily: At this point in time, how do you view the overall trend of the crypto market in the next 1-2 years? What macro variables or regulatory policies may become key variables?
Yi Lihua: Supported by favorable policies and expectations of interest rate cuts, the crypto bull market is expected to continue. Of course, there will be many black swans and normal fluctuations in the middle, but there are no signs of major trend reversals. When there are really big variables, we will make analysis and judgments as soon as possible.
Odaily Planet Daily: As a senior practitioner in the crypto industry, what advice do you have for ordinary investors in the current environment?
Yi Lihua: I have given a lot of suggestions on Twitter, you can go and have a look. The most important and fair choice for everyone is trend investment. In the face of a bull market, the best strategy is to do less. Invest less at the primary level and avoid heavy contracts.
